[bowman] fundamental PROCESSES IN HISTORICAL SCIENCE 529 



Even before and at birth, therefore, the lives of boys are more en- 

 dangered than the lives of girls. In the same empire in the years 

 1871-1881, out of every 106,200 males and 100,000 females born, 

 there survived, at the age of one year, 79,360 males and 78,260 fe- 

 males, at the age of forty 51,799 males and 51,576 females, and at the 

 age of sixty 33,054 males and 36,293 females. In the case of Germany, 

 then, the prime factor in converting a male preponderance of 6-2% 

 in births into a female preponderance of 4% in population was the 

 greater mortality of boys in the first twelve months of life. As a 

 result, the original relative excess of 6,200 boys per 100,000 of female 

 births was reduced in one year to 1,100. According to the subse- 

 quent rates of mortality, the second principal period of relative decline 

 in the number of males was from the 40th to the 60th years of life. 

 In this interval a slight relative male excess of 223, still remaining out 

 of the original 6,200 at the 40th year, was converted by the 60th into 

 a relative male deficiency of 3,239." 



Case 11 is based on Brockhaus's Konversationslexikon, previously 

 cited, vol. ii, 926; vii, 633; xv, 327. The mortality table in Brock- 

 haus, XV, 327, is given only per 100,000 births of each sex. From 

 this table the author has calculated the survivors from 106,200 males, 

 the number of males born in Germany in those years being 106,200 

 per 100,000 females. At the end of the 5th, 10th, 20th and 30th 

 years of life, the original relative male excess of 6,200 per 100,000 

 female births, which sank to 1,100 in the first year, stood at 767,702, 

 639 and 264 respectively. 



The four conclusions in Case 11 are all of very great probability; 

 but a basis for a numerical estimate is not easily available. Hence the 

 degree, as in similar instances in Cases 3 and 7, has been simply rated 

 as "high." 



Case 12. 



Cases 1 to 11 were selected to test experimentally the value of 

 the superior measure of probability defined as the "ratio of the num- 

 ber of occurrences of the event to the total number of occasions in the 

 course of experience." Case 12 is added as an illustration and ex- 

 perimental test of the inferior conceptualistic measure used in the 

 "mental process of balancing reasons pro and con." The narrative 

 of necessary conclusions in Case 12 consists of the successive parts of 

 evidence read uninterruptedly without regard to the intervening 

 probable conclusions. 



Narration of Case 12. 

 (Part 1): "Jones was a merchant and Smith was the local man- 

 ager of a bank with a number of branches. Neither possessed the 



Sec. I and II. 1916—35 



