[bowman] fundamental PROCESSES IN HISTORICAL SCIENCE 549 



requires that the established circumstances must all be (1) not only 

 consistent with the truth of the inference, but (2) inconsistent with 

 any other reasonable supposition. In this 2nd test, which involves 

 the exclusion of reasonable doubt, an effort is made to suggest if pos- 

 sible any other supposition contrary to the inference and yet reason- 

 ably in harmony with the established circumstances. This test, in 

 opposition to the inference, is made by reasoned probability, and a 

 practical way of bringing the matter to a direct, definite issue is to 

 ask one's self: "Is it possible that the reverse of this inference could 

 be established by additional, direct evidence without disproof of some 

 point or points in the circumstances ?" If such a possibility be reason- 

 ably conceivable, the inference is merely probable, but if not, then 

 reasonable doubt is excluded, and the inference is to be classed as 

 necessary. The principle involved in this reversed test is that a 

 probable conclusion may be disproved by additional evidence without 

 disproving any of the points on which the probability now rests, but 

 a necessary conclusion cannot be disproved by additional evidence 

 unless the addition disproves some one or more points which now 

 make the conclusion necessary. The application of this test in his- 

 torical investigation may be illustrated by two typical cases, the identi- 

 fication of the Annals of Rosenfeld and the authorship of the Con- 

 tinuation of Regino's Chronicle. The chronicle identified as the 

 Annals of Rosenfeld, covering the years 1057-1130, was found about a 

 century ago at Liineburg in lower Saxony (racial, not the present 

 kingdom of Saxony). It was written on a parchment folio wrapped 

 about a^protocol book of the 17th century, and contained no mention 

 of name, time or place of origin. The part following the year 1100, 

 which proved to be independent of other annals, was devoted in its 

 details especially to Saxon events. The annalist assumes that his 

 readers will know who is meant, when he refers to the Saxon princes 

 simply as "Margrave Rudolf," etc. He assumes a like familiarity 

 and interest in his readers with respect to the relatively unimportant 

 Saxon family of the counts of Stade. He mentions that this family 

 had established the monastery of Rosenfeld in their domains. And 

 in the final year of his chronicle, 1130, the simple entry stands: 

 "Abbot Kuno died." Other sources show that Rosenfeld was the 

 monastery where Kuno was abbot until 1130. From these established 

 circumstances or points in evidence, the inference has been drawn 

 that this chronicle was written at Rosenfeld, and it has been included 

 accordingly in the Monumenta Germaniae under the name Annales 

 Rosenveldenses. The chronicle of Regino, abbot of Priim (in Rhenish 

 Prussia), which closed at 906, was continued to 967 by an unknown 

 annalist. The Continuator has been identified as Adalbert, a monk 



