September 1, 1915.] 



THE INDIA RUBBER WORLD 



h.v> 



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HENRY C. PEARSON, Editor 



Vol. 52. 



SEPTEMBER I, 1915. 



No. 6 



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TABLE OF CONTENTS ON LAST PAGE OF READING. 



WAR-BOOMED BUSINESS WHEN THE WAR IS 



OVER. 



MR. ( i IREY, formerly president of the steel corpora- 

 tion, is reported to have stated on his return re- 

 cently from Europe, that the war hail three more years to 

 run. Mr. Corey is a man of standing ami is entitled to 

 his guess — for at the present juncture it is a guessing 

 contest pure and simple. It does not seem at all probable 

 that peace will be deferred another three years. It might 

 be; and again it may come in a few months. The only 

 fact that can be predicated with certainty is that peace 

 will come — soon or late. And when it comes, what will 

 happen commercially? What will befall the manufac- 

 turers in this country who now have the trade that the 

 belligerent- used to have and which we were unable in 

 times of peace to wrest from them? Can we keep it. or 

 will Europe forthwith retrieve it? 



When the European artisan- lay down their arm- and 

 go back to their work, can they produce on the same old 

 basis of costs? Their general efficiency must of neces- 

 n sity be materially lowered. Hundred- of thousands of 

 skilled workmen will lie buried in the trenches. Other 

 hundred- of thousands will return to work maimed in 

 body ami dulled in mind. Factory organization will be 



sadly awry, and the whole machinery of production will 

 be quite out of smootli running. Moreover, taxes will 

 be increased and the cost of living inevitably raised. Will 

 nol all this mean an increase in manufacturing costs? 



Normally it would, but the situation will not be nor- 

 mal; it will be far from it. Europe will have to regain, 

 if not all, at least a substantial part of her lost trade. It 



will be a ease of grim necessity; and when 



enters into a situation minor factors fade away. Eng- 

 land, i iermany and France will undoubtedly fight for 

 their old places in the exporl world, even if the employer 

 has to abandon for the time being all expectation of profit 

 and the employee reduce his comforts to the minimum. 



American manufacturers who argue that having se- 

 cured some of Europe's former trade they will be able 

 to hold it permanently, war or peace, will be likely to dis- 

 cover that they have deceived themselves. There i- the 

 dyestuff trade, for instance. The Department of Com- 

 merce at Washington is making notable efforts to assist 

 the manufacture of aniline dyes in this country and to 

 protect it against German competition when the war may 

 end. but experienced chemists believe that this industry 

 will be one of the first that the Germans will endeavor 

 to regain, and that it will be difficult to hold it perma- 

 nent) against their competition. The industry has been 

 marvelously organized in that country, and they will have 

 one substantial advantage at the close of the war, namely, 

 an accumulation of coal tar by-products left from the 

 manufacture of explosives which can be used in the mak- 

 ing of aniline dyes. 



But to confine the discussion solely to the export trade 

 in manufactured rubber goods: In 1913, the last year of 

 normal European trade, the exports of manufactured 

 rubber goods from the I'nited States amounted in value- 

 to $12,054,455. During tin same twelve months the value 

 of exports of manufactured rubber goods (including in- 

 sulated cables) from Great Britain amounted to 

 $34,799,790; from Germany, to 832,000,000; from 

 France, $18,331,333; from Russia. $2,784,000— the total 

 exports of manufactured rubber goods from these four 

 belligerent countries amounting in that vear to nearly 

 $88, 000,000, or over seven times our own. 



At present of course no belligerent country is able to 

 maintain this export trade. England has lost over half 

 of hers, France has but little and Germany practicallv 

 none at all. Naturally, American manufacturers are get- 

 ting a certain portion of this trade. The question is. how 

 mi, ,li will they keep after the treaty of peace is signed? 

 Of one thing they can feel quite confident, that they will 

 not be left in quiet and undisturbed possession of their 

 newly acquired customers, for the rubber manufacturers 

 of England and the Continent may be depended upon to 

 make for their old preserves with despatch and deter- 

 mination. 



Ihe moral of all of which is that American rubber 

 manufacturers should lay hold of all the extra trade that 

 the war has deflected in their direction, but keep con- 



