W SAlMONin INHANIJMINT 



which the targets were haseil. the prugram's expectations 

 (or tish priKliictiiMi are hn;hlv satistactDry. 



txtMHuiik' pirfttniiaiKX' Current estimates by officials 

 of the S;ilnK)nid llnhanccment Program suggest that 

 Phase I will ultimately generate net natii>na! income 

 benefits 0(77.4 million in 1*^80 dollars, about one-quarter 

 of the onginal target.' (In the remainder of this chapter 

 many of the costs and benefits are expressed in 1980 dol- 

 lars for consistent companson of values.) 



The overall benefit-cost ratio of 1.3: 1 also falls short of 

 the projected 1.5: 1. (This means that $1.30 in fish values 

 will be generated for each $1.(X) expended, measuring all 

 benefits and costs in dollars of equal value and discount- 

 ing them as required to take into account the time at 

 which they occur.) Benefits to the target area will be 

 about 40 percent of the onginal target, at $78.3 million. 

 The estimated continuing employment that will be pro- 

 vided to Indians is 32 person-years, half the target. And 

 the employment generated in constructing and operating 

 enhancement facilities is estimated at 623 person-years, 

 exceeding the target by more than one-third. The current 

 projections of net benefits, by major program component, 

 are given in Table 5-2. 



Table 5-2 Anticipated economic achievements of 

 Phase 1 



net national 

 program government income benefit-cost 



component cost benefits ratio 



* Includes minor engineering projects, small stream improvement proj- 

 ects and pilot projects. 



"" Expected production from some projects in these categories beyond 

 Phase I is excluded and therefore the net benefits and benefit-cost 

 ratios are understated. 



' The estimated purchasmg power in 1980 dollars, of the funds 

 expended during Phase I. 



Source: Unpublished data from the Salmonid Enhancement Program. 



The lower expectations for national income gains, tar- 

 get area benefits and Indian employment are partly 

 attributable to the shrunken purchasing power of the 

 funds available for the program. But there are other rea- 



sons as well. Rising constmction costs have led to higher 

 cost estimates and hence lower net benefit estimates. Flie 

 estimated contribution to national income has been 

 reduced because the estimated cost of harvesting and 

 processing the enhanced production has been revised 

 upward on the basis of new information. In addition, 

 resources have been diverted toward enhancing 

 depressed chinook stocks and away from projects that 

 indicated higher economic benefits." 



However, several unexpected developments have had 

 beneficial economic effects. Lake fertilization is expected 

 to be an exceptionally economical means of enhancing 

 sockeye production (at least if the results obtained in the 

 Great Central Lake experiment can be replicated else- 

 where); Japanese-style chum hatcheries have proven 

 more successful than anticipated; and community devel- 

 opment projects have been effective in involving Indian 

 communities with high unemployment. Furthermore, a 

 substantial volunteer labour force has been marshalled to 

 undertake some projects at low cost. 



Table 5-2, which gives the program components of 

 Phase I, reveals a number of significant features: 



i) Major engineering projects are expected to account 

 for over half the costs and three-quarters of the gains 

 (before allowing for overhead) in net national 

 income. 



ii) Lake fertilization, while absorbing less than 10 per- 

 cent of the government costs, is expected to account 

 for almost all the remaining contribution to the 

 national income. And it is expected to yield by far 

 the greatest economic return per dollar expended. 



iii) Minor projects (small-scale engineering projects, 

 small stream improvement projects and pilot proj- 

 ects) appear to be considerably less attractive than 

 most other types of projects from an income generat- 

 ing point of view. 



iv) Community development projects almost break even 

 in terms of benefits and costs, and economically are 

 expected to be as good as, if not better than, minor 

 projects as a means of producing fish. This is 

 significant in view of the objectives other than fish 

 production to which much of the funds expended in 

 this category are directed. For example, almost half 

 of the government resources committed to these 

 projects are absorbed by a complementary training 

 program. 



These preliminary expectations and results have 

 important implications for designing future enhancement 

 plans. 



Public participation and education As already men- 

 tioned, the program was intended to generate a high level 

 of public participation in both planning and implementa- 



