SALMONID ENHANCEMENT 55 



Finally, it appears to me that concerns about the mix- 

 ture of species may be unwarranted. The appropriate spe- 

 cies balance, like the best mixture of facilities, will ulti- 

 mately be achieved by selecting those projects that gen- 

 erate the highest returns. And increased production of 

 most species creates scope for benefiting all user groups. 



Effectiveness of lake fertilization Phase I's expected 

 achievements rest heavily on the results of lake enrich- 

 ment for sockeye production. Experiments with fertiliza- 

 tion on Great Central Lake predate the enhancement 

 program; the strong returns in 1976 came at a time when 

 the program was being developed and resulted in lake 

 enrichment being expanded and included in the plans. 

 Early results produced high expectations, and accord- 

 ingly the planned sockeye production using this tech- 

 nique has been revised upward significantly. This year a 

 sharp increase in the sockeye returns to Hobiton and 

 Long Lakes appears to have rewarded fertilization there. 



But high expectations for lake enrichment are not 

 shared by all scientists. Some are concerned that the 

 remarkable returns associated with early experiments 

 may be due, at least in part, to natural ecological phe- 

 nomena. With the help of biologists I have examined the 

 data relating to the original enrichment projects and am 

 forced to conclude that in some cases the data and histor- 

 ical records are so poor that we cannot reliably assess 

 what has been achieved. This is disturbing because so 

 much now hinges on these projects. The overall success 

 of Phase I depends crucially on a substantial contribution 

 from lake fertilization, as indicated in Table 5-2. In view 

 of the major role that lake fertilization now plays in the 

 program, its effectiveness warrants careful monitoring 

 and evaluation. 



Enhancement of stocks subject to foreign interception 



As a matter of policy, enhancement on streams that pro- 

 duce stocks subjected to significant harvesting by foreign 

 fleets has been deferred in Phase I. This includes the Nass 

 and Skeena Rivers: streams that run through the Alaskan 

 panhandle, which produce fish exploited partly by 

 Alaskan fishermen: and sockeye and pink salmon on the 

 Eraser system, where catches are divided between Can- 

 ada and the United States by international agreement. 

 Some of these rivers oflTer excellent opportunities for 

 enhancement, and the delay in taking advantage of them 

 has been vigorously criticized by some participants. 



The Eraser River has more potential for enhancement 

 than any other river on Canada's Pacific coast and offers 

 especially attractive opportunities for enhancing pink 

 and sockeye stocks. The International Pacific Salmon 

 Eisheries Commission estimated in 1972 that sockeye 

 catches could be increased by 36.6 million pounds and 

 odd-year pinks by 24.5 million pounds," with many proj- 

 ects showing high benefits in relation to costs. A recent 

 study confirms these estimates.-'^ 



Under present arrangements, which would assign a 

 substantial part of any increased production of Eraser 

 River sockeye and pink salmon to the United States, pur- 

 suing these opportunities would be unwise, since Can- 

 ada's ultimate position would be weakened by entrench- 

 ing United States claims. However, a wide range of issues 

 relating to interception of stocks and shared har\'ests will 

 likely be resolved in the near future through a framework 

 agreement between Canada and the United States.-' In 

 the event that this allows Canada to realize the full 

 benefits from increased salmon production in the Eraser 

 system, the available opportunities should be vigorously 

 pursued, and careful evaluation will almost certainly 

 indicate that they warrant high priority. 



Project economics and evaluation Concerns have been 

 expressed also about the economic f)erformance of the 

 Salmonid Enhancement Program. Some of these con- 

 cerns flow from those already discussed, in particular, 

 whether the end result is simply to replace wild stocks 

 with costly enhanced stocks in which case an economic 

 loss rather than gain will be realized. The preproject eval- 

 uations have assumed that the harvests can be taken from 

 discrete stocks without unmanageable stock interaction 

 problems, but whether this will be achieved remains to be 

 seen. Eor obvious reasons this assumption must be criti- 

 cally examined and the projected benefits adjusted as the 

 Phase I results come in. But the project analysts cannot 

 be faulted for proceeding on this assumption. The eco- 

 nomic evaluations have been thorough within the pre- 

 scribed assumptions. Indeed, I know of few other federal 

 investment projects which are subjected to such rigorous 

 examination. 



Several other important assumptions are embedded in 

 the analyses. One is that salmon prices will increase more 

 than the inflation rate. In view of recent trends in supply 

 and demand for salmon this assumption appears to me to 

 be tenuous. But the assumed rate of increase is modest, 

 and does not raise the estimated benefits substantially. 



More serious is the assumption that the federal and 

 provincial governments will curb wasteful expansion of 

 capacity in fishing and processing. The joint federal- 

 provincial agreement that provides the framework for the 

 enhancement program perceptively provides that the two 

 governments will "restrain the primary and secondary 

 sectors of the commercial fishing industry from incurring 

 unnecessary capital investments which could dissipate 

 the benefits to be generated by the Program."" They fur- 

 ther agreed to develop and implement a plan to "restrain 

 unwarranted investments" by January 1980. 



The economic evaluations of the projects in Phase I 

 were based on the assumption that redundant investment 

 in the fleet would be controlled so that capital costs 

 would not increase. As explained in Chapter 9, however. 



