Prediction of Climatic Variations 



CAREFUL RKSEARCH ON CLIMATIC DATA BY THE CUUNTRY'tS BP]8T 



METEOROLOGISTS MIGHT SOON SAVE THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED 



STATES BILLIONS OF DOLL.ARS BY PREDICTION OF STORM OR 



DROUGHT MONTHS IN ADVANCE 



By ELLSWORTH HUNTINGTOX 



Professor of (icofirapliy in Yiilf lliiivorsily 



THE influence of sliglit clinuitic 

 variations upon man's pros- 

 perity and liappiness is almost 

 heyond belief. In the year 1912 the 

 average rainfall in the state of Kansas 

 (luring the month of July was 2.56 inches. 

 That year the corn crop had a value of 

 S69,700,000. July is the critical month 

 for corn. In other months only enough 

 rain is needed to keep the corn alive and 

 growing, but when the silk is coming 

 out and the ears are making their chief 

 growth, there must be plenty of moisture 

 or the crop is ruined. In 1913 the July 

 rainfall averaged only 1.31 inches. Al- 

 though the acreage of corn was practi- 

 cally the same as in 1912, the corn crop 

 was worth only $18,270,000. A differ- 

 ence of a little more than an inch of 

 rainfall in July, with unimportant differ- 

 ences in the preceding and following 

 months, made a difference of $41,430,000 

 in the amount of money received b\' the 

 farmers those two years. According to 

 the census of 1910, there were 178,000 

 farms in Kansas, and in 1912 and 1913 

 there may have been 180,000. There- 

 fore the average farmer received about 

 $230 less for his corn in 1913 than in 

 1912, and all because of an inch of rain 

 in July. Think of the difference that it 

 would haAC made to the Kansas farmers 

 if in 1913 they had been able to prevent 

 or forestall the loss of $230 apiece. 

 Many of course lost far more. Consider 

 the difficulties of those who found them- 

 selves without money for new machinery. 



for their children's education, for the 

 interest on the mortgage, for new clothes 

 and . shoes, and for a hundred other 

 necessities. 



Kansas is only one state out of forty- 

 eight, and corn is only one crop out of 

 scores. If we take all the crops and all 

 the states the total value in an excep- 

 tional year like 1915 rises to ten billions 

 or more. Even when there is no war 

 the \alue rises easily to eight billion dol- 

 lars in good years, while in poor years it 

 may not be more than five or six billion. 

 Most of this difference is due to varia- 

 tions in the weather, which influence not 

 only the corn crop, but also everything 

 else that grows in the soil. The weather 

 has a pronounced effect also on the 

 numl)er of eggs and amount of milk 

 produced, the number of young animals 

 that survive, and the weight of the 

 older ones that are slaughtered. Sup- 

 pose that a difference of a little over two 

 billion dollars is due to the weather. 

 That would mean that on an average 

 each of the seven million farmers of the 

 country has $300 less in poor years than 

 in good. To the average farmer such a 

 sum means all the difference between 

 prosperity and ad^'ersity; between the 

 ability to improve his farm and lay l)y 

 money, and the necessity for neglecting 

 his farm and running into debt. 



If variations in the character of the 

 seasons from one year to another fre- 

 quently do two billion dollars' worth of 

 damage to this country, how much is it 



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