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THE AMERICAN MUSEUM JOURNAL 



worth to find out why such variations 

 take place? We cannot of course change 

 the weather, but if we know why one 

 season differs from another, we can 

 probably discover a method of predict- 

 ing such differences months in advance. 

 If we could do that, how much would it 

 be worth? Take Kansas as an example. 

 Suppose that the farmers were informed 

 in January that the chances were four 

 out of five that the following summer 

 would be dry, what good would it do 

 them? The wise farmer would at once 

 begin to lay his plans. In the first place 

 he would curtail his expenditures so as 

 to save up a little against the hard sea- 

 son that would follow. Next he would 

 gradually get rid of his surplus live stock 

 in order not to be obliged to carry it 

 over a winter when the price of feed 

 would be high. Then he would plan 

 not to plant much corn, although on the 

 wettest part of his land he might per- 

 haps plant a little on the chance of local 

 showers which would give him a good 

 crop at high prices. If he were wise 

 however, he would not bank largely on 

 that. In the next place the farmer 

 would plan to sow millet or some other 

 crop which can stand more than the 

 usual degree of aridity. Finally he 

 would agree with a neighbor that for 

 that season one of them would run both 

 farms. The other would seek work in 

 some part of the country where unusu- 

 ally favorable weather was predicted, 

 and where all the farmers would be 

 eager to hire help in order that they 

 might plant as much land as possible. 

 Now and then a man who followed this 

 method might see his more foolish neigh- 

 bors more prosperous than himself, be- 

 cause the predictions would occasion- 

 ally be wrong, but a man who con- 

 sistently heeded the predictions year 

 after year woulrl surely prosper in the 

 long run. His income wouki be com- 



paratively uniform, no matter what the 

 weather might be. It is easily possible 

 that $500,000,000 per year might be 

 saved to the country if such a system of 

 long range predictions were thoroughly 

 worked out and applied. Even if only 

 $100,000,000 could be saved each year, 

 it would be worth while to spend mil- 

 lions to achieve the result. 



If several hundred million dollars 

 could be saved to the country each year 

 by a knowledge of the cause of climatic 

 variations, the farmer would by no 

 means be the only gainer. Everyone 

 knows that if the farmers are prosperous, 

 the rest of the country follows suit. 

 That is why intelligent people look with 

 such keen interest at the government 

 crop reports. How closely the rest of 

 the country is dependent upon the 

 farmers has recently been shown most 

 effectively by Professor Moore of Colum- 

 bia University. He has compared the 

 average prices of all commodities with 

 the average value of the crops produced 

 per acre. He has made full allowance 

 for the fact that the methods of farm 

 cultivation have improved during recent 

 decades, and also for the rise in general 

 prices due to the increased production 

 of gold and its consequent decline in 

 value. His results show unmistakably 

 that the productivity of the soil de- 

 termines the prosperity of the country. 

 The process is simple. When the crops 

 are good the farmers have plenty of 

 money, and buy new furniture, auto- 

 mobiles, ploughs, shoes, fancy groceries 

 and all sorts of manufactured articles. 

 The retailers soon sell out their stock 

 and begin sending orders to the whole- 

 salers. The wholesalers wait a little to 

 see if the orders continue and then 

 send orders to the factories. After a 

 short time the factories get so many 

 orders that they begin to increase pro- 

 duction. All the operatives are at 



