WILL MORALITY DISAPPEAR? 



Paul Popenoe 



There is much evidence indicating 

 that morality is dependent on heredity 

 — ^that virtue can only develop with a 

 certain inherited background. If this 

 be true, then the amount of morality 

 in the race will be largely dependent on 

 the birth rate. 



It is for obvious reasons difficult to 

 find statistical material in which the 

 parents can be graded according to 

 their morality. Frederick Adams 

 Woods was particularly successful in 

 this respect, in his careful study of 

 Eviropean royalty, where by averaging 

 the estimates of historians he was 

 able to form an unusually accurate 

 estimate of the mentality and morality 

 of the sovereigns and their relatives. 

 When he classified the individuals in 

 10 groups, according to the amount of 

 morality they possessed, he found that 

 the number of children who reached 21 

 years was correlated with the morality 

 of their parents. Those who were low 

 in virtues had only 1.66 children each, 

 while the moral geniuses at the top of 

 the list brought 3.83 children each to 

 maturity. 



While this single investigation is not 

 adequate proof of the correlation be- 

 tween morality and net fertility, yet 

 the result is no more than one would 

 expect. There are many reasons, both 

 medical and economic, why the children 

 of the more vicious and depraved 

 naturally die in greater numbers; and if 

 they do, then the evolution of a higher 

 moral state has been brought about 

 partly by selective breeding. 



ROYALTY GOOD WORKING MATERIAL 



Royal families furnished particularly 

 good material to test the problem, be- 

 cause there has probably been no arti- 

 ficial restraint of the birth rate there; 

 reasons of policy make monarchs de- 

 sire to have as large families as possible. 



If there were no interference with the 

 course of evolution, if there were no 



restriction of families among the moral, 

 and if no aid were given to the immoral 

 in bringing up their families, it seems 

 probable that moral people would 

 steadily have the larger families, and 

 the increase of moral qualities in the 

 race would be ensured. 



RESTRAINTS ON SELECTION 



How is it nowadays, when every sort 

 of interference with natural selection 

 is found? 



It is difficult, as was pointed out 

 above, to find a population in which the 

 individuals can be graded for statis- 

 tical purposes; but we can easily find 

 populations all of whom are, on the 

 whole, superior in morality. Francis 

 Gal ton made a study of famous divines, 

 finding that "they are a moderately 

 prolific race, rather under than above 

 the average." This would seem to be 

 explained by the fact that "they usu- 

 ally have wretched constitutions." Col- 

 lege professors are probably as moral as 

 ministers, however, and offer more ma- 

 terial for study. If their racial con- 

 tribution is considerably above or be- 

 low the average, one can draw some 

 inferences in regard to the amount of 

 morality which the nation is likely to 

 possess a few generations hence. 



In the first place, there are large 

 classes of them who are celibate. 

 Such are, for the most part, the pro- 

 fessors in the separate women's col- 

 leges ; likewise the tutors and fellows in 

 English universities. 



A study of the past and present mem- 

 bers of the faculty of the University of 

 Illinois, as enumerated in the Alumni 

 Record of 1913, has been made for the 

 Journal of Heredity by W. L. Alt- 

 man. The total number of individuals 

 listed is 1,154, of whom 363 men and 

 123 women are single, that is, 42% of 

 the total number. Many of these are 

 young, however, and may marry later. 



Of the remainder, there were 618 



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