FEWER BIRTHS AND DEATHS: WHAT 
DO THEY MEAN? 
Death Rate Falling in Civilized World in Recent Years—Birth Rate Falling Still 
More Rapidly—Death Rate Cannot Fall Much Farther, but Readjust- 
ment of Birth Rate along Eugenic, Lines Is Necessary! 
WALTER F. WILLCOXx 
Professor of Economics and Statistics, Cornell University, 
death rates are revealed by a 
diagram showing annual death 
rates for a populous area through 
a long series of years. The American 
districts best satisfying these two con- 
ditions are Massachusetts, for which 
the death rate since 1849 is known, and 
the old New York City, for which the 
death rates run back now through 
more than a century. 
The accompanying diagram shows 
the death rate in each of these areas 
for each year from the beginning of 
registration to the present date. (See 
fig. 10.) 
This diagram illustrates what a larger 
body of evidence would confirm, that 
the perceptible and steady decline in 
the death rate is a relatively recent 
phenomenon. In order to test the 
correctness of this inference, the average 
death rate has been computed for each 
decade and the ratio found between 
that rate and the rate in the preceding 
ten. years ‘taken as 100. The results 
are as follows: 
(eeaih important changes in 
These figures show that the decennial 
death rate in New York City rose for 
the forty years following 1810-19, but 
has been falling since the Civil War 
and is now much lower than ever before. 
In Massachusetts the rate rose until 
about 1880 and has been falling since 
that date, but at a slower rate than in 
New York. Decennial rates for at 
least two decades have been obtained 
in twenty-seven European countries 
and in every one the rate for 1901-10 
was lower than for any previous 
decade. This evidence shows that the 
decrease of the rate is well-nigh universal 
in Europe. A few exceptions to the 
rule, however, are found in other parts 
of the world; namely, Ontario, Canada, 
Connecticut, Michigan, Vermont, Chile, 
Jamaica, Japan and Ceylon. But in 
some of these the rates at earlier 
decades were incredibly low and the 
apparent increase was probably due 
to more complete returns of deaths in 
the later years. 
The diagram also suggests that the 
annual fluctuations began to decrease 
at about the same time that the rates 
Ratio of rate to that in preceding decade 
Death rate in = 100 
Date New York City Massachusetts New York City Massachusetts 
1804-09 26.3 Se 4 ier: 
1810-19 24.7 43 94.2 Sates 
1820-29 2568 et: 104.2 Wine 
1830-39 29.8 Ph 11557 oe 
1840-49 30.3 fete 101.5 RPA 
1850-59 35.6 18.0 Tle DEER 
1860-69 Sil UI 19.4 89.0 107.8 
1870-79 PA AS 1977 Sie2 101.6 
1880-89 26.8 19.6 97.1 99.6 
1890-99 5 19.1 86.0 97.1 
1900-09 19.0 16.0 82.3 84.0 
Sie! 15:5 80.6 96.7 
1910-13 
1Paper read by request before Section VIII, Public Health and Medical Science, Second 
Pan-American Scientific Congress, W ashington. BD: Cs 
119 
