THE DEATH RATE IS GRADUALLY FALLING 
The solid line in this chart represents the death rate in New York City for more than a cen- 
tury, and shows that in spite of annual fluctuations the number of deaths per thousand 
of the population has been decreasing ever since the middle of the last century. For 
the last quarter of a century or more there is an almost uninterrupted decline, coincident 
with the increased attention paid to sanitation and public health. 
The dotted line shows 
the death rate for Massachusetts, which also decreased during the last quarter of a cen- 
tury. 
It is obvious that this decline in death rates can not proceed very much longer. 
Modern hygiene may postpone the death of a man, but it can not keep him alive forever. 
(Fig. 10.) 
began to fall. To judge whether this 
is a general or only a local change, 
conditions in the twenty-three countries 
of Europe? for which the rates as far 
back as 1870 are known have been 
examined. The average annual varia- 
tion has been determined. Naturally 
the successive years between which the 
greatest variation occurred were the 
years of transition from peace to war or 
vice versa. Thus, the greatest changes 
occurred between 1871 and 1872 and 
between 1870 and 1871. The war of 
1876 exerted a less noteworthy influence. 
On the whole, the annual fluctuations 
have decreased but the change is less 
obvious and uninterrupted than students 
of individual cities or countries might 
expect. 
Both the steady decrease in the death 
rate and the slow reduction in the annual 
fluctuations mark and measure man’s 
progressive emancipation from physical 
ills of disease or famine, which are closely 
dependent upon climate and_ season, 
and, we might have thought, before 
August, 1914, from the political ills of 
war and revolution. 
In New York State between 1894 and 
1909 there was a marked decrease in 
mortality during July and August as 
compared with the average for the 
entire year. I believe no similar studies 
have been made for other States. In 
default of other evidence we may con- 
clude that one factor in the diminishing 
death rate has been an increased control 
of deaths in summer. If this should 
prove to be a general fact, it would 
probably be connected with the success 
of efforts to reduce infant mortality. 
The hot months are especially dangerous 
to infants, while the cold months are 
especially dangerous to the aged. 
Age influences the death rate more 
powerfully than any other physiological 
factor. Most people know that the 
death rate is lowest at the age of puberty 
and very much higher at the beginning 
and end of life. But the amount of 
2 For this purpose the three divisions of Great Britain and Ireland and the eight divisions of 
the German Empire have been distinguished. 
120 
