568 The Journal of Heredity 
yearly tables which does not show 
just as well in these decade tables.”’ 
YALE SURPASSES HARVARD 
“It is scarcely necessary to call atten- 
tion to these two tables; the falling 
birth rate is shown in all four columns 
where children are considered. Roughly, 
the number of children born per capita 
per married graduate has fallen from 
about 3.25 in the first decade to 2.50 in 
the last decade. The per cent of gradu- 
ates marrying has remained about the 
same for forty years, and is a trifle 
higher for Yale; but the low figure, 
68% for the first decade of Harvard, is 
probably due to faulty records, and must 
not be taken as significant. 
“The next most interesting figure is 
the ‘Children Surviving per Capita per 
Graduate.’ This has fallen from over 
2.50 to about 1.9. The per cent of 
childless marriages increased very mark- 
edly during the first two decades and 
held nearly level for the last two 
decades. For the last decade at Yale 
it has even dropped slightly, an encour- 
aging sign. It is worthy of note that 
the number of children born to Yale 
graduates is almost constantly a trifle 
higher than that for Harvard, while the 
number of childless marriages is slightly 
less. 
“Sprague® calculated that among 
American stock of the East the families 
must average 3.7 children ‘for every 
mother who demonstrates any ability to 
bear offspring.’ According to him every 
married woman bearing children must 
bring three to a marriageable age. He 
says that 15% of the stock he studied 
(New England) did not marry, or 
married too late, and that 20% of 
marriages produced no children. We 
have seen that 22 to 25% of Harvard 
and Yale graduates never marry, and 
that 19 to 23% of marriages are infertile; 
therefore, on Sprague’s basis every 
married graduate having children must 
average a little more than three surviv- 
ing children to perpetuate the stock. 
“Tt is not my purpose here to suggest 
reforms or to analyze causes. I think 
every one in every walk of life will agree 
that the college graduate should at 
least perpetuate himself. Many of us 
disagree as to the eugenic ideal, for 
there is no single ideal possible, but all 
must admit that college men are at 
least fair samples of American manhood. 
The causes of the great decline in birth 
rate are almost world-wide, and they 
concern the economist, the psychologist, 
and the physician. Reform must come 
from within, not from without, and it 
will be brought about by a sterner sense 
of duty and a realization that the vain 
stampede after pleasure for pleasure’s 
sake is leading us only to restlessness 
and discontent. 
“Before concluding it will be well to 
compare the results of this study with 
the only investigation which gives us 
any real light upon the birth rate of the 
old American stock. I refer to the 
‘Report of the Immigration Commis- 
sion,’ Vol. 28. Here are a few of the 
facts touching on birth rate of Ameri- 
cans. 
‘““Among American women under 45 
years of age who had been married 
ten to nineteen years, 13.1% were 
sterile (childless): in Rhode Island, 
17.5 to 19.4%; in rural Minnesota, 
5.1%; and in the city of Minneapolis, 
12.7%. 
“Considering the number of children 
among this category of married Amer- 
ican women, we find table III based 
on nearly 16,000 individuals from vari- 
ous sample districts. 
“According to the ‘Report of the 
Immigration Commission’ native Amer- 
ican stock cannot be holding its own 
in the East or in the cities of the Middle 
West. In the rural districts of the 
Middle West the women have just one 
more child each than in the urban 
districts, and this rural stock may be 
said to be a little more than holding its 
own. The birth rate in the South is 
supposed to be much higher. 
“In Massachusetts the State report, 
Births, Deaths, and Marriages, for the 
twenty-five years ending 1911, shows us 
that the deaths among the native-born 
population exceeded the births among 
the native-born by nearly 270,000. 
® JOURNAL oF Herepity, Vol. vi (1915), pp. 158-62. 
