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it again because I have been looking into the forecasts of other 
observers to see how far the same thing had been noted by others. 
Sir R. Christison was a thoroughly scientific man, a man who was 
content to make accurate observations and to record them; but 
not aman likely to say that because A followed B, therefore A 
was caused by B. This was, and is still the error of most weather 
prophets, they note in some years that a warm January has 
followed a cold October, and they prophesy for all time that a cold 
October is sure to bring a warm January; they argue from the 
particular to the universal, which is absurd. The error shows 
itself in the common belief that abundance of holly berries are a 
sign of a hard winter to come. They area proof that the previous 
seasons have been favourable to the formation of holly flowers and 
berries, but they can tell us nothing of the weather to come. Yet, 
though a mild winter is not a consequence of a previous cold 
October and November, it is a coincidence which may be well 
worth noting, and it is curious how universal has been this forecast 
of a mild winter from a cold beginning. The turning point in 
the weather of November has been from time immemorial fixed to 
All Saint’s Day, and 8. Martin’s Day, November Ist and 11th ; and 
no doubt that has arisen from the observation that fine warm 
weather so often comes, though for a very short time, at that 
time, making the “ All Halloween ” summer and the “S. Martin’s 
summer, halcyon days,” that Shakespeare notes. There are 
several old proverbs grounded upon this common observation, 
but I need only mention one or two. 
“Tf there is ice in November that will bear a duck, there’ll be 
nothing after but sludge and muck.” 
“ Tf it’s fair, dry and cold at Martinmas, the cold in winter will 
not last long.” 
“Tf the geese on §. Martin’s Day stand on ice, they will walk 
in mud at Christmas.” 
There are many such proverbs used in many European countries ; 
and without attaching much importance to them as universal 
