1912] Immigration. 5 



tective tariff,* All that we can say is that in the last generation the 

 Republican Party to some extent attained its object by Protection, 

 though part of its success was due to other things. 



It must be remembered in this connection that, in so far as the 

 growth of cities in America has been caused by the tariff, these cities 

 are not a net addition to the national life, but a substitution of one 

 thing for another. During the period of its action, a tariff cannot in- 

 crease the total income of a nation. If it directs that nation's energies 

 into urban industry, it is at the expense of rural life. Where the tariff 

 has increased the urban population, it has checked the growth of the 

 rural population of the United States by at least a like amount. 



It is therefore undeniable that the tariff has had an effect on immi- 

 gration, and so on the racial composition of the American people. It 

 has acted as a lure to those Europeans who have a preference for city 

 life, and as a deterrent to those Europeans who have a preference for 

 country life. What have been the changes in the racial composition of 

 the twenty millions of people who have entered the country between 

 1870 and the present time? 



The figures given below are an attempt to answer this question. 

 They are compiled from the statistics of the Commissioner for Immi- 

 gration, and do not include the total immigration of the period, as may 

 readily be seen by comparison with the table of immigration given 

 above. In this table the various peoples have been classed according 

 to differences of race and outlook, Latins and Slavs being lumped to- 

 gether in Group iii for reasons which will be discussed. 



Group i. includes the people of the British Isles. 



Group ii. includes Danes, Norwegians, Swedes, Dutch and Germans. 



Group iii. includes the people of Russia, Italy, Austria, Hungary, 

 and the Spanish and Balkan Peninsulas. 



Immigration into U. S. A,, 1871-1910. 



1871-1880 1S81-1890 1891-1900 1901-1910 



Group i 985,000 1,463,000 746,000 865,000 



Group ii 978,000 2,163,000 954,000 895,000 



Group iii 191,000 933,000 1,910,000 5,919,000 



Total 2,154,000 4,559,000 3,610,000 7,679,000 



*It is suggested to me by Professor G. I. H. Lloyd that in view of the rapid growth 

 of cities in Argentina and other low-tariff South American countries, it is unwise to lay 

 much stress on the influence of Protection in this case. It is of course as difficult to ad- 

 vance as to refute an economic theory of causation such as this; but it may be remarked 

 that the great growth of Buenos Ayres occurred, not in the low-tariff days of Argentina, 

 but after her adoption of a high tariff late in the nineteenth century. Buenos Ayres, 

 like Rio de Janeiro, Cape Town, Melbourne and Sydney, is at the same time a great 

 seaport and the seat of manufacture. Free-trade assists her to develop in her first 

 capacity; Protection in her second. It is not strange that all new countries, whatever 

 their tariffs, have at least one large seaport; but I do not know of any low-tariff country 

 comparable in size and development with the United States or Canada, that has aa 

 inland manufacturing city the size of St. Louis, or even of Hamilton, Ont. 



