154 Mr. Lubbock on the Calculation of Annuities, Sj-c. 



veracity) rather diminishes the probability that the event has 

 taken place, if p = k, the assertion does not alter the probability, 

 '\( p <\, the assertion rather increases it. - 



\i p = ^ , e = .8l6oi, let m = 10; then 



1 + Se 9.1601 



, which 



10' ' '" ' "' ' in + 2 12 



is the probability that the individual will tell the truth in another 



case. If the individual had told ten truths, the chance of his 



11 



telling the truth in another case would have been — . 



All values of x between and 1 were suppo.sed equally 

 possible ; if they are not, let <^.r be the probability of the possibility 

 of any value of .r, then the probability of an individual telling the 



truth will be 



f(p X d I 



px + (1 -x) (l-p) 



divided hy f(f>xdx, these integrals 



being taken from a; = to a; = 1 . 



TABLE formed from the Burials in All Saints' Parish, Northampton, from 1735 

 to I78O. See p. 143. line 12. 



Under 2 

 Between 2 and 5 



5 — 10 



10 — 20 



20 — 30 



30 — 40 



40 — 50 



50 — 60 



60 — 70 



70 — 80 



80 — 90 

 90 — 100 



Total 



J. W. LUBBOCK. 



TniNITV CoLLEllI 



May 26, 1828. 



