276 E. J. BUTLER. 



to gauge the importance of the extension to the south. The infec- 

 tion of Tanaku, Narsapur and Yernagudem is clearly an extension 

 from the infected Taluks of the Godavari and the total area affected 

 is not believed to be large. There is a great jump however from these 

 Taluks to Bunder and Gudivada, and the intervening country will 

 have to be gone through very carefully to search for some continuous 

 line of extension. There is a considerable coastal traffic between 

 the Godavari and Masulipatam and the possibility of infective mat- 

 erial having been conveyed by human agency by sea must be taken 

 into account. The rapidity with which the disease has spread, when 

 once it passed south of the Godavari River and out of the area where 

 control measures were in progress, is testimony that the writer's 

 first estimates of its dangerous possibilities were not exaggerated. 



It is now necessary to review the effect of the operations on the 

 spread of the disease. The first fact that stands out is that since the 

 end of 1908 there has been no increase in the infected area in the Goda- 

 vari District, excepting the small area at Katavaram of reinfection 

 from Yernagudem across the river in the Kistna District, referred to 

 on page 229. The exact hmits of the area infected to the north and 

 east have been well known since early in 1908 and there can be no 

 doubt on this point. This check is not due to any scarcity of palms, 

 for northwards from the Godavari there is a great area of palm country 

 extending into Vizagapatam and to the base of the Eastern Ghats. 

 Taken in conjunction with the extension which has been steadily 

 progressing in Kistna where no control measures were in force this 

 result must be attributed to the operations. It was not until after 

 the middle of 1908 that active measures were in force along the 

 whole of the northern and eastern boundaries of the infected area, 

 and the almost immediate check of extension in these directions must 

 be considered as satisfactory. 



The second point to be considered is to what extent there has 

 been a diminution in the disease within the area of the operations. 

 At first sight it would appear from the monthly figures of trees cut 

 in the six infected Taluks of the Godavari given on page 274 that the 

 diminution has been slight. As already stated in connection with the 



