396 



The same ratio of increase would give about 30,000,000 bushels more than 

 the present exhibit. If we estimate 35,000,000 for the deficiency in the North 

 from bad seasons, and 15,000,000 for the retarding influence of scarcity of labor, 

 we have accounted for the 80,000,000 bushels deficit referred to ab<jve. 



The average quantity of wheat in 1860 to each individual was about five 

 and a half bushels; in 1866, calculating ujDon the basis of 35,000,000 people 

 and the wheat estimates above, fully five bushels. It will be seen from this 

 exhibit how unfounded is the prediction of famine-threatening scarcity, and how 

 unreasonable the assumption that prices of wheat and flour must necessarily 

 advance. Indeed, the present high prices, though influenced by comparative 

 scarcity, are due far more to the spirit of speculation fostered by an abundance 

 of money and low rates of interest, with excessive rates of transportation. 



It is an anomalous condition of aftairs when prices are persistently advanced 

 with an existing supply of five bushels of wheat to each individual, leaving an 

 actual surplus for export, and prices so comparatively low abroad as to prevent 

 foreign shipments. California alone claims a surplus suflScient to supply bread- 

 stuflfs to the entire population of New England. 



Old wheat. — It is comm.on to hear from excited and hasty individuals, farm- 

 ers, sometimes, as well as grain dealers, and commercial editors, that ''there is 

 no old wheat in the country." A diminution of one-fifth or one-fourth of the 

 usual surplus is overestimated, without sense or reason. If one locality is found 

 to have very little wheat on hand, it is straightway assumed that all others are 

 in like destitution ; a conclusion which never in practice follows such a premise. 

 If these hasty persons would take the trouble to extend their observation, they 

 would find that while one locality has but one-fifth of its customary surplus, 

 there are others that have four-fifths, or perhaps, in some cases, more than ever 

 before. These differences exist among the several counties of a State, as well 

 as between the States themselves. 



It is true that there is a deficiency — a very considerable deficiency — in the 

 surplus of old wheat usually on hand at this season of the year. The Ohio 

 States suffered heavily by winter-killing of wheat, and a scarcity of grain re- 

 sulted ; but in such cases provident old farmers are very careful to save enough, 

 not only for seed, but for bread for their families ; and not a few, excited by high 

 prices, refuse to sell at the highest rates, hoping still for higher. It is this fact 

 that explains why Ohio has this fall 5 tenths of the supply of last year, which 

 was only three-fourths of that of the previous year. This would make the 

 present supply of old wheat little more than a third of the stock on hand in 

 October, 1864. Indiana has 6 tenths of last year's surplus ; Kentucky and 

 West Virginia little more than 4 tenths ; Wisconsin, 5.4 tenths ; Michigan, 8 

 tenths; Illinois, 6.3 tenths; Iowa, 7.4 tenths; Minnesota, 4.9 tenths. 



In the eastern States the supply in actual quantity amounts to little at any 

 time ; this year, however, it is nearly- the same as last year. Maine and Con- 

 necticut have 10 tenths; New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, New York, 

 and New Jersey, 9 tenths. 



An average of these returns, with due reference to the natural preponderance 

 of the wheat-growing section, would be fairly stated at 6 tenths of last season's 

 stock. This is about what .should reasonably be expected. It indicates a com- 

 parative scarcity of old wheat, but by no means the total failure that has been 

 declared to exist by interested speculators. 



Oats. — The present is undoubtedly the largest crop of oats ever produced in 

 the country. The crop of 1850 was 146,584,179; that of 1860, 171,197,012. 

 The increase of the past two years has been very large. The estimate for the 

 present year is 271,712,695. The increase is almost universal, Wisconsin being 

 the only northern State reporting less than last year. Virginia, North Carolina, 

 Texas, and Tennessee, make larger returns than in 1860 ; taking the eleven 



