174 



to break the fall of cotton-statisticiaus who are self- deceived by their 

 interests. 



European authorities, thoug^h prone to accept the views of ursine 

 operators, are compelled to acknowledge the unreliability of commer- 

 cial reports of cotton. The Monthly Circular of Smith, Edwards & Co., 

 of Liverpool, of the date of March 1, makes the following acknowl- 

 edgment : 



The current of feeling in America represents tlie predominant interests of speculators 

 This year the "bear" interest predominated, and large-crop opinions followed as a matter 

 of course. In former seasons the "bi;ll" interest usually prevailed, hence the crop was 

 iisually underestimated. The Agricultural Bureau is, after all, coming out most nearly 

 correct ; its reports were treated with contempt most of the season, but next year it will be 

 regarded as an oracle. 



A Liverpool letter of April 9 to the statistician acknowletlges the 

 verification of our cotton-estimates, and refers, in language of condemna- 

 tion, to certain " shamefully-edited" commercial journals, in New York 

 and elsewhere, " whose false estimates of the crop, and, we may add, 

 falsehoods^ have been the cause of a loss of millions of dollars to the 

 cotton-growers." " 



A correspondent, after referring to the culmination of the increase, 

 which, according to one authority, amounted to 305,290 bales on the 

 12th of December, and had declined to 225,743 on the 24th of the same 

 month, remarks as follows : 



During the following five weeks, from the 25th of December, 1874, to the 29th of January, 

 1875, the receipts in the ports fell off with the corresponding period of last year exactly 

 2.'59,000 bales ; and on the 29th of January the total receipts stood thus : From 1st Sep- 

 tember, 1874, to 29th January, 1875, total receipts in ports, 2,.530,000 bales. Corresponding 

 date of ]87:V74, 2,540,000 bales. 



During the next seven weeks the weekly receipts at the ports as compared with the cor- 

 responding receipts of last year were as follows ; 



Receipts at 

 ports, 1875. 



ReceiptH at 

 ports, 1874. 



V^eek ending February 5 



Week ending February 12. 

 Week ending February 19. 

 Week ending February 26. 



Week ending March 5 , 



Week ending March 12 



Week ending March 19 



Total in seven weeks 



Bales. 

 108,000 

 104, 000 

 97. 000 

 78,000 

 77, 000 

 63, 000 

 52, 000 



579, 000 



Bales. 

 146, 000 

 131,000 

 116,000 

 lOfi, 000 



95, mo 



82, 000 

 67, 000 



743, OOO 



A total falling off in seven weeks of 164,000 bales, and a steady weekly decline averaging 

 22 per cent. 



These statistics seem most naturally to be the true basis for an estimate of the crop that 

 has not found its way to the ports, or has not been otherwise accounted for. 



The crop of 1873-74 footed up, according to cotton-exchanges, as follows : 



Bales. 



Total cotton received at the ports '. 3, 804 000 



Total cotton received over land 2;i3, 000 



Consumption at the South 129,000 



Total crop 4,171,000 



Now, up to the 19th March, 1874, the total receipts at the ports v/ere 3,283,000 bales, 

 leaving 888,000 to be accounted for further receipts at the ports up to September, for over- 

 land cotton, and southern consumption. If, therefore, the seven weeks' steady decline of 22 

 per cent, be applied to the 888,000 bales accounted for last year, this would give for the 

 present year's cotton-receipts in the ports, overland and southern consumption, from the 19th 

 March to the 1st of September, exactly 692,640 bales ; add to this, cotton received at the ports 

 up to the lyth March, 3, 109,000 bales, the total crop estimated is 3,801,640. This is certainly 



