485 



Next we come to the first direct estimates of quantity expected, made 

 November 1, before killing frosts appear in the main cotton-belt. The 

 tabulation of these gives the November percentages represented the 

 quantity expected this year, compared with the actual crop harvested last 

 year — figures about which there is no mystery or difficulty, expressing 

 their meaning so plainly that a wayfaring cotton-broker, though a fool 

 in his assumed simplicity, need not err therein. 



Such is tbe record made by our correspondents. There will be one 

 more in December, Vv-heu all, except a |)ortion of the last picking, has 

 been gathered. Till then no estimate of the total product will be made 

 b3' the statistician. It may be stated, however, to avoid misunderstand- 

 ing, that the accurate figuring of the November percentages makes an 

 aggregate approximating 3,900,000 bales — not 50,000 less, as some have 

 calculated, their error consisting in giving too large a number of bales 

 to the seaboard States, whose percentages are low, and too small totals 

 to the Western States, especially in giving Alabama a larger production 

 than Mississippi, which she lacks by nearly 20 per cent. But the No- 

 vember returns are always more conservative than those of condition 

 during the summer, and a careful analysis of the season's reports, in all 

 their aspects, would compel an estimate, if made with no further data, 

 not far from five per cent, greater than the returns of November 

 alone would indicate. It might be still larger but for comparative late- 

 ness of development and reduced yield of lint in proportion to seed. 

 This renders it almost certain that the crop will pass the limit of 4,000,000 

 bales. So much may be said in advance of the fi^nal return and official 

 estimate. 



The best cotton-authorities of this country and of Europe have 

 already made interpretations of the season's returns, which accord with 

 their obvious general tenor. Among them may be named that eminent 

 European authority, the firm of Ellison & Co., of Liverpool, an extract 

 from whose communication of October 30 is as follows : 



Upon the basis of your reports we have made very successful estimates of the cottoii- 

 crop for two seasons past. Our plan is not to take the conditiou for auy oue month, 

 ^tjut the average condition for the season. We may or may not be right in our theory, 

 but for two seasons we have been successful. For the present crop we put down 

 3,900,000 to 4,100,000 in July last, when other people were making 4,500,000 to 

 4,800,000 out of your figures. Since then the tendency has been to «ome down to our 

 figures. At present we lean toward 4,100,000, owing to the improved condition shown 

 in your last report, and we think 4,250,000 possible with an open winter ; bat we 

 think 4,500,000 out of the question, and we do not think that at auy time this season 

 so large a crop as 4,500,000 looked at all likely. 



Experienced statisticians will not be guilty of the absurdity of inter- 

 preting any series of crop-reports by a comparison of the returns of auy 

 one month with those of the same month of the previous year, without 

 reference to all the facts reported throughout the season. With fair 

 expression of the most reliable human judgment as to the condition of 

 the growing plant, it would be an impossible thing to indicate 

 in advance the ultimate outcome in pounds of cotton, even if the state 

 of future weather and length of the cotton season could be determined 

 with iM'ophetic accuracy. In an expected crop of four million bales, a 

 reduction of the lint from 30 to 28i pounds in each 100 pounds of seed- 

 cotton would reduce the yield 200,000 bales; and there is greater differ- 

 ence than this in the yield of different years. If killing frost cuts short 

 the period of growth and maturation a single week, the season is shortened 

 one-tenth, and the crop, other circumstances being equal, is reduced at 

 least a quarter of a million bales: and if the weather afterward con- 



