404 



For reasons before stated, it wonkl not be safe to deduce from the 

 October condition any positive and dogmatic results in regard to tbe 

 final yield of a crop ungathered and still liable to vicissitudes. In the 

 monthly reports of the Department occasional conjectures have been 

 hazarded as to the ultimate i)roduct from known data, and on the sup- 

 position that the conditions of growth and harvesting undergo no 

 marked change. Sometimes alternative suppositions are made as to 

 probable yield under varied classes of conditions. But in all such cases 

 we have clearly intimated that nothing in the science or art of statistics 

 enables us to forecast future contingencies which affect the final result. 

 The public press has not always been careful to indicate the hypothet- 

 ical character of such conjectures, and has in some cases represented 

 the Department as inonouncing oracularly upon the yield of crops un- 

 gathered. 



The Department has not yet hazarded a conjecture in regard to the 

 ultimate yield of the crop of 187i. It differs in several important char- 

 acteristics from preceding crops to an extent which suggests extra cau- 

 tion in theorizing. The annual crisis came earlier than usual, giving to 

 injurious influences a wider scope of operation, while the recuperation 

 of September was scarcely perceptible. Yet the months of October 

 and Xovember may develop important modihcations in the final figures. 

 An unfavorable closing season would reduce the aggregate yield to 

 0,000,000 bales or lower; the season must be remarkabl}' favorable to 

 raise the aggregate yield above 3,500,000 bales. 



VxRCiixiA. — GreenviUe : C)ol weatlisr iajurious. Sussex: Five per cent, batter than 

 usual; uo rust or worms. Dimviddie: Seriously injured by drought ; top crop mostly 

 destroyed. Southanny'on : Below expectations. 



North Carolina. — IVihon : Greatly shortened by rust. Franlclin : Suffered from 

 cold and rust. Anson: Rust general and destructive; top crop lost; some farms will 

 not average 125 pounds of seed-cotton per acre. Cumherland : Drought and rust. 

 rasquoiank : Acreage reduced one-half; condition greatly depressed by cool weather. 

 Alecklenburgh : Twenty per cent, short of August figures ; rust, drought, and heat ; an 

 early frosb will cut it short 20 per cent. more. Bobeson : Sudden and unexpected de- 

 pression since last report ; rust or blight cut down the crop one-fourth. Beaufort : 

 Serious decline since September report ; weather unusually cool ; rust especially 

 destructive ; picking weather unfavorable. Columhus : Very tine ; no worms or other 

 disaster. Gaston: Cool nights more injurious than drought. Goldshorough : Fields well 

 manured with composts did well ; the fertilizers used by many only stimulated the 

 crop to premature growth, which it couhl not maintain when the stimulant was 

 exhausted. Bladen : Cold nights have caused a destructive rusting of the crop. 

 Camden : Cool weather has caused forms to shed very badh', reducing the crop fully 

 33 per cent. Cleveland: Most of the August bolls dropped oft"; the yield depends on 

 the delay of frost. Granville : Shortened 10 per cent, by drought. Greene : No top crop. 

 Chowan : Heavy rains and cool nights have caused the shedding of leaves and bolls. 

 Edgecombe : Unusual amount of cotton open; early-matured bolls are yielding heavily. 

 Perquimans : Still greater decline than last reported ; loss 25 per cent. ; rust. Moore : 

 Not so badly rusted as it is farther south. 



South Carolina. — Union : Prospect greatly declined since September 1 ; excessive 

 rain and cool weather, with heavy dews, restrain the opening of the bolls ; early frosts 

 eared. Beaufort: Injured by rust and caterpillars. Newberry: Drought caused the 



