468 



something to the quantity opened and safely gathered, and the large pro- 

 portion of lint may swell the aggregate, the highest estimate that could 

 be based fairly upon these returns could scarcely reach 4,000,000 bales. 



The October statement, which has been misinterpreted, (or misrepre- 

 sented,) as indicating 3,000,000 bales or less, makes the average for ten 

 cotton-States, 71 per cent, of normal condition, or an impairment of 20 

 per cent, from all causes, against 79 per cent, last year. So far as con- 

 dition in October indicated final results in bales, the proportion would 

 be : as 79 is to 71 so is the aggregate yield of last year to that of the 

 present season. This would make, within a fraction, 3,748,000 bales on 

 the same acreage ; but on an area 10 per cent, less, it would mean 

 3,373,000, or, with the outlying area, fully 3,400,000. The fine season 

 for rii^ening and gathering accounts for the increase in the final re- 

 turns, and renders the accuracy of judgment in the two returns almost 

 absolutely identical. As to the necessity that all the monthly reports 

 of condition throughout the growing-season should be identical in their 

 percentages, it is an absurdity and an impossibility, which no man of 

 sense would suggest, as there must ever be a constant warfare between 

 the vital and destroying forces of nature, the current results of which 

 it is the business of our correspondents to report from mouth to month. 



The statement of condition, (100 representing normal condition of 

 healthy development, above which extraordinary vigor and growth may 

 sometimes be written, while all impairment of vitality or reductiou of 

 healthful growth are represented by lower figures,) during the growing- 

 season of 1874, has been reported as follows ; the figures being in each 

 case an average, for the State'naraed, of the county percentage of normal 

 condition, by the side of which are placed similar State averages for 1873 : 



The condition of the crop in June was reported lower than in the same 

 period of 1873 in every State except Texas and North Carolina. Louis- 

 iana, which suffered most by floods, made the lowest average ; Missis- 

 sippi next; Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama coming next in order. 

 Saturating rains, causing overflows of every spring-branch as well as 

 larger streams, left cotton more unthrifty, irregular, and stunted in 

 appearance than for years at the early stage of its growth. The writer of 

 this visited most of the cotton-States, and can testify to the reliability 

 of the first report. 



After the rains came exceptionally fine weather ; stands were perfected 

 by replanting ; the plants took root more firmly in the warm soil; growth 

 became rapid ; and vigilance stimulated by recent fears of utter failure 

 kept the field unusually clear of grass, so the July returns everywhere 

 indicated improvement, as those of the previous year had shown de.3line 

 of condition. A comparison of the two years iu July shows higher con- 



