178 



of the last, the produce would be little short of four millions." The cor- 

 rectness of that estimate was fully veritied, a full half-million of bales 

 having been contributed by the extreme length of the season. In Oc- 

 tober, the harvest having i^rogressed thus far auspiciously, the estimate 

 of 3,800,000 bales was placed on record. No fairer prediction could have 

 been made ; an early date ibr the recurrence of a killing frost would 

 have reduced the yield below that tigure, while the greatly lengthened 

 season did actually secure a larger product. 



The Dei)artment of Agriculture has received returns from nearly three 

 hundred counties, representing the most productive districts of each of 

 the cotton States, and showing the comparative acreage and the condi- 

 tion of the crop in the first week in Jane. 



A diminution in the area planted in cotton appears in every State 

 except Florida. The most careful analysis of the returns, with due re- 

 gard in making averages to the extent of cotton iiroduction in the re- 

 spective counties, gives the following percentage of reduction in com- 

 parison with last year : Virginia, 30 \)er cent. ; North Carolina, 14 ; 

 South Carolina, 13 ; Georgia, 12 ; Alabama, 13 ; Mississippi, 15 ; Louis- 

 iana, 8 ; Texas, 14; Arkansas, 10; Tennessee, 12. These State aver- 

 ages, reduced to a general average, the assumed acreage of the respec- 

 tive States being an element in the calculation, will place the reduction 

 of the cotton area of 1871, as compared with that of 1870, between 14 

 and 15 per cent., equivalent to nearly a million and a third of acres. 

 This would leave between seven and a half and eight millions of acres 

 as the present area in cotton. The average yield has not, in former 

 years, exceeded 150 pounds per acre ; that for 1870 was more than 200 

 pounds. 



The condition of the growing crop is below an average in nearly every 

 State. The spring has been unusually wet and cold, retarding growth, 

 causing the plants to turn yellow and die, and obstructing cultivation. 

 To a large extent replanting has refilled the vacant spaces of imper- 

 fect "stands." The weather has recently been more favorable, and 

 it is uot impossible that an average condition may be attained 

 hj the commencement of the jucking season. The "condition" of 

 cotton in July of 1809, a year favored with an abundant yield, was 

 only a little better than the showing for June of the present year. 

 While the prospect is slightly unpromising, there is nothing in it of 

 a decisive character. The percentage, below an average condition, is 

 respectively as follows in the several States : North Carolina, 10 per 

 cent. ; South Carolina, 8 ; Georgia, 18 ; Alabama, 17 ; Mississippi, 10 ; 

 Louisiana, 10; Texas, 7; Arkansas, 17; Tennessee, 10. In Florida the 

 condition is 3 per cent, above an average. 



An otticial estimate of the ultimate result so early in the season would 

 be an absurdity. The influence of future rains, floods, frosts, and insect 

 enemies, cannot be calculated in advance. But in view of the extremely 

 favorable circumstances affecting the crop of last year, there cannot be 

 expected in the present season, upon a leduced area, exceeding three 

 and one-half millions of bales. An early frost, or the prevalence of 

 insects, or a very unpropitious season, might reduce the yield to three 

 millions ; and a still further reduction is possible in the union or severity 

 of several of these causes of failure, 



A very general disuse of fertilizers is reported in Georgia and the 

 Carolinas, where last year their application was almost universal, and 

 in many instances, excessive. This fact may contribute to a reduction 

 of the aggregate yield of the year. Their cost was found to be dispro- 

 portionate to the increase in production at current prices for cotton. 



