305 



COTTON. 



"Xo cotton crop reports purporting to have come from the Department 

 of Agriculture during the past mouth have been geiuiine. Tlie items 

 n circuhition, often contradictory in tenor, assumed to be ofdcial, have 

 had no origin in the statistical data of this office.* The returns of August 

 and September include reports from about four hundred cotton-growing 

 counties, representing a very large proportion of the cotton area. Those 

 for August point to an average condition of the crop, almost identical 

 with that of the preceding report, the averages for Alabama and Missis- 

 sippi being the same; those of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee being- 

 higher, and those of the other cotton States being lower. The State 

 averages of the September report are somewhat lower than those of 

 August, though the principal depreciation occurs in States which yield 

 a small proportion of the crop, while the reduction is slight in the dis- 

 trict represented by the States of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and 

 Louisiana. The percentage of full condition, as averaged from all 

 attainable data, is thus stated: i^ortli Carolina, 82; South Carolina, 80; 

 Georgia, 78; Florida, 75; Alabama, 80: Mississippi, 80; Louisiana, 77; 

 Texas, 80; Arkansas, 95; Tennessee, 90. 



There are reports of injuries by the boll-worm and caterpillar, mainly 

 in Mississippi and Louisiana, but no evidence that a general or very 

 serious loss from insects is probable. Eust is common in the Atlantic 

 States, and to some extent on the Gulf coast. Drought has been injurious 

 in the Carolinas and in Texas, though the reports of rain-fall through 

 the South indicate a fair supply of moisture, the distribution of which 

 lias been somewhat more unequal than usual. At one point in Georgia 

 the fall in August was nearly fourteen inches, and in parts of Florida it 

 amounted to twenty-three inches. These variable atmospheric condi- 

 tions have increased the prevalence of rust, and caused the destruction 

 both of leaves and fruit. These drawbacks, though greater than those 

 reported in September of last year, are not sufficiently serious to excite 

 apprehensions of a greatly depreciated yield. They are reported ea<?li 

 year in some portions of the cotton area. In the record of last year 

 there was "considerable complaint of damage to the cotton crop from 

 rust, worms, and unfavorable August weather." 



These facts do not point to an eidargement of the expectation hitherto 

 indulged. If they are reliable, the most favorable season could scarcely 

 bring a crop exceeding three and one-third millions of bales; if the 

 growing season should be short or untavorable, three millions would be 

 a good result. With thecombination of unfavorable circumstances, the 

 IDroduct might be still further reduced. 



The local history of the crop makes a wonderfully variable record, 



* The Statistician lias no occasion for explanation or apology on account of official 

 crop statements. Their intended moaning is sufficiently plain for honest iuvestigators 

 of facta. Persons engaged in reckless speculation may be expected to garble quota- 

 tions, pervert language, and force conclusions that are plainly illogical and false. It 

 may not be possible to protect conscientious inquiry against the influence of these 

 perversions. The public should discrimiuate carefully -between statements that are 

 official and those which are deliberately fabricated, as well as those, by mistake, 

 assumed to bo official, or ci'edited to this office. While the statistical reports need no 

 vindication, the burden of fabrications, misrepresentations, and false assumptions, which 

 increase with the furor of speculation, should not be augmented by a thoughtless lack 

 of public discrimination. As to occasional newspaper charges of collusion among our 

 correspondents, in aid of speculation, or of interested motives of the Commissioner or 

 Statistician, it is creditable to the good sense and honesty of the fraternity that they 

 are few, and gratifying to know that those few are from irresponsible or prejudiced 

 sources. 



