THE OUTLOOK FOR IRON.^ 



By Prof. James Fukman Kemp, 

 Columbia University. 



The close of the nineteenth century produced an attitude of mind 

 in many students of national affairs akin to that of a merchant who 

 balances his books at the end of a twelvemonth. Allien the results 

 of a. year's business have been demonstrated, the merchant decides 

 on his plans ^nd policies for the future. He makes a reliable esti- 

 mate of his resources and leams his possibilities and his limitations. 

 As a nation which looked over a hundred years instead of one year, 

 we were in much the same position when the twentieth century 

 opened. 



From small beginnings, all manner of industries had reached an 

 impressive development. Some employed materials which were con- 

 stantly reproduced either by plants or animals, and which, by im- 

 proved methods, could be increased in amount; but other industries 

 were rapidly drawing upon fixed reserves which could not be re- 

 newed. We naturally began to forecast the future and, with a look 

 ahead, to infer the course of events in the centui-y then opening. 

 Among the industries, that of mining came in for special attention. 

 It is a very great one in this country, and it is distinctive in that it 

 destroys its raw materials in utilizing them. Forests, crops and live 

 stock all grow again. Ore and coal mined are gone forever. Not un- 

 naturall}^, in a fundamental industry such as iron mining — one on 

 "\Ahich so many others rest, — people vitally interested began to raise 

 the question of reserve for the future and to wonder in what position 

 the industry would find itself fifty or a hundred years later. We are 

 not surprised, therefore, to note that open expression was given to 

 feelings of apprehension, nor that some prophecies were made whose 

 restatement now possesses much interest. Not alone, however, in 

 our own countr}' were these apprehensions felt. Abroad, they like- 

 wise found expression, especially in England, whose people had been 

 roused for years regarding the future of their coal fields. 



In October, 1902, Mr. Andrew Carnegie, one of our most distin- 

 guished ironmasters, was installed as rector of the University of 



1 Reprinted by permission from Contributions from tlie Geological Department, Columbia 

 University, Vol. 27, No. 1. 



289 



