19 . 



during the coming year. That demand will not likely be greater than the 

 general average of English importation. 



THE HOME MARKET. 



Under these circumstances it is important to see what will be the condition 

 of the home market. The elements of this market are found in that manufac- 

 turing and commercial industry briefly alluded to in our first monthly report 

 when showing the billions of dollars Avhich each of these interests had invested 

 in its operations. "What will be the extent of those operations during the 

 coming year is not easily determined, because the condition of the country is 

 changing, from the existence and the progress of the war. It is easily enough 

 seen that woollen manufactures will continue to increase to the full extent of the 

 supply of wool, to fill the void created by the absence of cotton cloths. In 

 proportion as the prospect of exports of meats and breadstuff's is diminished, 

 the greater will be the advance in gold, but at the same time such advance will 

 check importations, and induce a greater demand for home manufactures. The 

 effect will be to increase the home demand for breadstuffs. This fact, together 

 with the general prosperity, will sustain and create a greater quantity of manu- 

 factui'es supplying the ordinary wants of the people. The government may 

 diminish its operations in certain branches of manufacture. There may be a 

 less number of vessels built, a less number of cannon made, and fewer iron- 

 clads constructed than in 1863 ; the high prices of labor and materials may 

 check building, and limit much of that expenditure which looks more to the 

 comfort of living than the prosecution of business, but the increase in these 

 general manufactures will moie than compensate for all decrease. Every indi- 

 cation points to an increased home demand for our breadstuffs. 



THE CURRENCY. 



The exportation of our breadstuffs may be hastened or retarded by the con- 

 dition of our currency, and domestic enterprise may be quickened or paralyzed 

 by the effects of the same cause upon the home market. If an irredeemable 

 currency is put forth in immense quantities, as now in the rebel States, the 

 premium on gold must become so great as to induce heavy exportations of 

 products in preference to purchasing gold to pay for imports. It may even so 

 unsettle the business of a country as to form a serious check to industry by 

 inducing capitalists to invest in landed estates rather than labor-employing 

 business ; hence the condition of the currency is always to be considered in 

 connexion Avith the consumption and export of breadstuffs. 



Our government sustains the expenditures of the war by the issue of paper 

 money, which would soon become as worthless as that of the rebels were it 

 issued in the same unlimited quantities, and without reasonable provision for its 

 redemption. The extent of the issue, however, is limited to the amount of 

 currency actually necessary for the transactions of business. It is constantly 

 being returned to the treasury in payment of taxes, and by investments in bonds 

 of the United States. These bonds, the principal and interest of which are 

 payable in specie, can always be purchased with United States notes known as 

 " greenbacks," precisely as with coin, and in ordinary times a hundred dollar 

 six per cent, bond of the United States is worth more than a hundred dollars in 

 coin. Even a five per cent, bond, indeed, is worth more than an equal amount 

 in gold dollars. It is plain, therefore, that so long as the credit of the govern- 

 ment, represented by bonds, is well sustained, the same credit, represented by 

 currency, cannot greatly depreciate. The practical question, then, is, "Will this 

 credit be sustained during the year 1S64? Doubtless it will. The general 

 prosperity of the country will enable the people to pay their taxes promptly, 



