17 



For want of the census returns showing the product of the counties the 

 correspondents have nothing upon which to base their estimate of present 

 crops. Had this department been in existence in 1861, and had placed before 

 it the returns for the counties, it could have made up county estimates from 

 year to year since 1860, based on the estimates for each preceding year and 

 the returns of the correspondents for the succeeding one. The publication of 

 these would have aided the correspondents in their judgment. Since 1860 the 

 effect of the civil war has completely revolutionized agriculture. With these 

 two difficulties, (the first of which should not have occurred, and the last will 

 cease with the restoration of peace,) the labor of estimating the amount of 

 the crops in bushels and pounds is very great. It involves an examination 

 of the general progress of the agriculture of each State for a series of years, 

 which is shown chiefly by the census returns of 1840, 1850, and 1860. The 

 per cent, increase must be ascertained of the progress made by each State in 

 each crop, at different periods of this progress, also special causes acting on 

 production, as railways, or other improvements in transportation, or on prices, 

 as unusual commercial demand, or in change of products by the growth of 

 manufactures. The duration, extent, and intensity of their action must be 

 considered. At this time the points of government supplies must not be 

 overlooked. How far each section of the country will be influenced by these 

 causes must be judged of from a personal knowledge of the gfeneral agricul- 

 tural condition of the country and of much of its local peculiarities. National 

 and State censuses must be compared, and from every source of information 

 must be derived the means of correcting the returns of correspondents, who, 

 under the circumstances in which the country and they themselves are placed, 

 cannot be regarded as always correct. In ordinary times none of these dis- 

 arranging causes are at work, and hence, when once the plan is fairly in 

 operation, the annually published estimates of the production of counties will 

 sufficiently guide the judgment of correspondents, especially when greater 

 experience shall have familiarized them with their duties. But with all these 

 extraordinary difficulties to contend against, the returns of correspondents are 

 far more reliable than most of those made by township and county assessors, 

 who collect agricultural statistics for several of the States. The omissions 

 of these assessors are so many, their indifference and carelessness so great, 

 the reluctance of the people so general to render an account of their annual 

 products, lest they may be subjected to taxes, that the collected returns pre- 

 sent most unreliable results. 



5. The utility of these statistics. — From time to time brief references have 

 been made in these reports to t.e practical operation of the statistics thus 

 collected. The plan has been in trial for a year — one of a most extraordi- 

 nary character. To the disturbing causes from political convulsions were 

 added the injuries to the fall crops from frosts of unexampled destructive- 

 ness. The statements made have been tested by time and commercial trans- 

 actions, and they have been sustained in a most gratifying manner. Those 

 who made immediate purchases last fall from faith in these reports are now 

 rejoicing over the money saved. They at once established an advance of 

 twenty cents a bushel for corn, and the farmer has received that which was 

 justly due to him. In none of the facts stated has there been any material 

 error. If, then, the -plan has stood these tests in a time so extraordinary, it 

 cannot fail when with peace comes our accustomed agricultural prosperity, 

 and with ordinary seasons our usual crops. 



2 p 



