436 



many of tlie more distant requiring a period of ten daj'S in the trans- 

 mission by mail, are tabulated as received, the county percentages 

 summed up, and the aggregate divided by the number of counties. 

 Then, as certain counties may produce of a given crop many times the 

 amount grown in certain others, a compound calculation is made, involv- 

 ing the relative production of the counties, by which the first crude 

 average is corrected and the exact value of the entire returns expressed. 

 It will be seen that the amount of labor involved In this work is hercu- 

 lean, fifty to one hundred calculations often being required to correct 

 the average of a single crop in a single State. In addition to the tab- 

 ulated returns, "remarks" illustrating the peculiarities of the local situ- 

 ation are made by each correspondent, which are examined, condensed, 

 some of the more noticeable arranged for publication, and the remainder, 

 in spirit if not in substance, enter into the statistician's summary of the 

 monthly crop returns. So many are necessarily of a similar tenor that 

 it would confuse and tire the reader to print in detail " extracts from 

 correspondence" of tenfold the usual length. 



It is, of course, understood that the returns which are tabulated are 

 in figures. The unit in all comi>arisons is 100, i. e., 100 is the area of 

 last year, if comparative acreage is sought ; 100 is a healthy normal 

 " condition " of growth and vitality, which should insure, with a contin- 

 uance of circumstances equally favorable, an average crop ; and 100 is 

 an average yield, when the amount of i)roduction is asked for. The in- 

 quiry is also made, after the harvest is fully over, for the actual local 

 yield per acre in bushels of each crop. From all these returns, sifted, 

 digested, compared, and evident or proven mistakes corrected, and in- 

 consistencies harmonized, the average of each crop for each State and 

 for the United States is found ; and the result is evidently more trust- 

 worthy than any other mode of estimating hitherto undertaken. Ger- 

 many has a somewhat similar plan, based upon i)ercentage returns, and 

 the English mode is simply a collection of miscellaneous reports couched 

 in the language of the individual reporters, similar to the systematic 

 collections attemi)ted by newspapers in this country. 



These crop-reports are made monthly during the growing season. 

 For several years seven such reports, between April and November, 

 have been tabulated and published. Is there a necessity for more fre- 

 quent rei^orts ? The New York Journal of Commerce has the following, 

 which has been cox^ied by two or three agricultural papers : 



At present our only classified croji-reports are those prepared by tlie Agricultural 

 Department, and sent out monthly. They are not badly done, but, unfortunately, are 

 too late to be of much use ; some of the information representing items weeks old, that 

 have already appeared in the papers. At present our best sources of knowledge about 

 the crops are the journals in different parts of the country. If the Agricultural De- 

 partment would pick up a little more energy, and obtain fresh and early crop-news 

 once a week, instead of monthly, and give it to the press, that would be a decided 

 gain. But if the Signal-Service Bureau could take charge of the work, we would pre- 

 fer to lodge it there. 



If the commercial editors and the public generally will be content 

 with a score or two, or even a hundred, of local reports daily, they can 

 be furnished with ease ; if, on the contrary, a comprehensive view of 

 the condition of a crop throughout the country is desired, it is highly 

 probable that weeldy reports, based upon returns which are two weeks 

 en route to this office, cannot be safely promised. The return-circulars 

 are mostlj' mailed between the 1st and 8th of each month, are tabulated 

 and condensed as they arrive, figured up before all are in, the record 

 is closed by the 15th, and condensed summaries of results telegraphed, as 

 fast as complete, from the 15th to about the 20th of each month ; and then 



