AGKICULTUKAL STATISTICS. 589 



In the omitted explanations tlie number 10 is made to represent an average 

 crop, instead of 100 in the Prussian plan. This is better adapted to the climate 

 and magnitude of the crops of the United States, for its fraction of one-tenth 

 approximates sufficiently near to represent the actual production of a county. 

 In preparing tables for each State from the county returns it has been found 

 necessary to retain fractious of tenths when the number of farm stock or of 

 bushels of grain have to be calculated from the compiled returns in tenths for 

 e^ch State. 



But the details of the plan of Mr. Judd are defective in this — that they ask 

 the correspondents to give annual averages for five years, when they have no 

 basis on which to make them. This should be the work of the central agency, 

 which should have all the statistics necessary to make the proper deductions. 

 They are defective, too, in asking the same questions for each month. This 

 department has felt the necessity of asking many questions suggested by the 

 returns of the preceding month. But we presume that to economize the ex- 

 penses in printing, postage, and labor in compiling the returns, was the cause 

 of having the questions for each month alike. To Mr. Judd belongs the credit 

 of giving definite shape to a plan for the annual collection of the statistics of 

 the crops, by which their amount could be approximated to sufficiently near 

 for all practical purposes. His plan is virtually the same as the Prussian, and 

 it is the one adopted by this department. The details, however, have been 

 much changed by it, and made applicable to almost every matter belonging to 

 agricultural production. 



4. The means used in the jnactical operations of the plan. — It is proper that 

 these should be noticed, for we believe that before long this plan will be adopted 

 in all commercial nations. 



Every mouth during the summer, and bi-monthly during the winter, the 

 department issued circulars to its correspondents. These are persons recom- 

 mended by members of Congress and others. The first trial showed that they 

 could not give reliable statements as to the number of bushels or pounds of any 

 product, but very useful information whether the crop inquired about wag a 

 tenth or more greater or less than the preceding crop. Such information, whilst 

 it is not to be implicitly relied upon, is, nevertheless, a most important element 

 in calculating the bushels or pounds of a crop. 



The number of such correspondents should not exceed one for an ordinary 

 sized county of 400 square miles, or twenty miles square, and about five assist- 

 ants. They are not paid any compensation, except in copies of the Annual and 

 Monthly Reports and seeds, and they ought to receive a copy of the abridged 

 census reports, and of the unabridged, so far as relates to agriculture, for the 

 purpose of aiding them in the discharge of their duties. 



On a day named in the circular their returns are sent to the department by 

 the mail, and as fast as received they are entered on rolls for each State, and 

 when all arc entered, the returns are added up and the product divided by the 

 number of counties returned for each crop. This gives the general average for 

 each State in tenths axviS. fractions of a tenth. 



The next step is to calculate from these averages the product of a crop in 

 bushels or pounds, because these best exhibit the increase or deficiency. Here- 

 in, at this time, lies the chief difficulty of the practical workings of the plan. 



For want of the census returns showing the product of the counties, the cor- 

 jespondents have nothing upon Avhich to base their estimate of present crops. 

 Had this department been in existence in 1861, and had placed before it the 

 returns for the counties, it could have made up county estimates from year to 

 year since 1860, based on the estimates for each preceding year and the re- 

 turns of the correspondents for the succeeding one. The publication of these 

 would have aided the correspondents in their judgment. Since 1860 the effect 

 of the civil war has completely revolutionized agriculture. With these two 



