1811] Reply to Mr. Hawes, on the Doctrine of Probabilities. 338 
14, 
As long as the cause exists which led 
to the preference of specie over paper, 
and to the system of hoarding, specie 
will continue scarce, and will be likely 
to rise in nominal value, relatively to 
bank notes and paper currency: but as 
soon a3 paper can be converted on de- 
mand into specie, the preference in fa- 
vour of specie will cease, the hozrds will 
be opened, and specie will becuine as 
plentiful as heretofore. 
15. 
The power of Jews and money- 
dealers to speculate in the specie, and 
affect its value, will always be in propor- 
tion to the quantity in circulation; and 
their controu! would cease, if the grounds 
of the hoarding system were removed, 
and the Bank paid their notes in specie, 
when the amount of the specie in cir- 
culation would of course exceed the 
compass of their capitals. 
16. 
The Bank of Engiand being the ful- 
érum on which are balanced the fortunes 
of the country, it appears to be expe- 
dient, at this crisis, to place it under the - 
vigilant controul of a committee of Par- 
liament; and the private property of the 
directors and of the Bank Company, or 
the pledge of parliament, ought to be 
committed to the public as a security for 
the notes of the company now in circu. 
 Tation. 
17. 
Tn like manner, Country Bankers, who 
issue paper currency, ought to be called 
upon to give landed security for the 
amount of their issues ; and these-com- 
panies, as well as the company of the 
Bank of England, ought to pay a half- 
rate of interest to the revenue, for the 
sums which, ‘by the issue of paper cur- 
rency, they now borrow of the public 
without interest. 1 
18. 
The ‘alternative to prevent greater, 
_ perhaps irremediable evils, is to dissolve 
the existing spell by paying specie on 
nd for bank notes. The conse- 
restoration of public confidence 
occasion specie to re-appear in 
ntities too great to be affected by the 
ations of speculators. Paper and 
would be again at par. The mo- 
hoard would be destroyed; alarms 
e dissipated; and public prospe- 
uld stand once more on a solid 
permanent basis. 
Common, Sense. . 
- Chelsea, April 12, 1811. 
nrHLy Mag, No, 212, 
To the Editor of the Monthly Magazine, 
SIR, 
F the doctrine of probabilities, as ge- 
nerally admitted, were a matter of 
mere speculation, and of no practical 
utility, f should not trouble you with any 
observations upon Mr. Nathaniel Hawes’s 
attack thereon, in your last number, 
because the doctrine he attempts to es- 
tablish, appears to me to carry its own 
tefutation with it; but as the future 
provision of thousands, as well as the 
valuution of very extensive property, de= 
pend much upon a right knowledge of 
the subject, it is important that your 
numerous readers (many of whom may 
be unaccustomed to considerations of this 
description) should not be induced to 
suppose, that all which has hitherto been 
done in this way, has been founded in 
error; nor that it was reserved for Mr. 
Hawes to convict such men as Halley, 
De Moivre, Price, Simpson, Dodson, 
or Morgan, or Baily, of ignorance on a 
subject, which, till now, they had the 
reputation of treating with great ability. 
On this account, and for this reason only, 
am [ induced to request your permission 
to state the simple principles, which are 
the foundation of the generally received 
doctrine. 
The probability of any event taking 
place, is the ratio of the chances for its 
happening to all the chances for its both 
happening and failing. Thus the pro- 
bability, that in throwing a halfpenny a 
head shall fall upwards, is the ratio of 
the chance for its happening, to the 
chances for its both happening and fail- 
ing, that is in the ratio of 1 to 2, and is 
therefore properly expressed by the frace 
tion 3, unity in all cases denoting cer- 
tainty, and therefore the sum of the 
probabilities of any event both bappen- 
ing and failing, will always be equal to 
unity ; again, the chance of throwing a 
particular number with a common die, 
1s likewise the ratio of the chance for its 
happening, to the chances for its both 
happening and failing; now as there ig 
but one way in which this can happen, 
and five ways in whieh it may fail, it 
will be in the ratio of 1 to 1-445 or 6, 
and is properly expressed by the fraction 
%, and if my receiving 1]. depended 
upon this contingency, the value of my 
chance would evidently be one sixth part 
of a pound, or 1l. % by the fraction 4, 
and forthe same reason if there are, ac- 
cording to Parcieux’s Table of Observa, 
tions, 814 persons living at the age of 20, | 
2U and. 
