REPORT OF THE STATISTICIAN. 361 



of the present incumbent. It wonld be qnite as practicable to gness 

 successfully the result as to obtain it of any subordinates of tlie office. 

 There is also a class of speculators whose estimates of crop condi- 

 tions are supposed to coincide with their interests, who are constantly 

 seeking to impress their views upon the Statistician, and sometimes 

 upon the Commissioner. Some may be unconscious of the bias which 

 self-interest inevitably gives their views, and sincere in their depre- 

 ciation of the estimates which they deem so viciously destructive to 

 the farmer's income (if they want high prices), or so inimical to the 

 welfare of the great body of consumers (if they want prices low) ; but 

 it exists, as is evident at the time, and proved triumphantly when 

 the records of crop distribution show, as they usually do, that the 

 estimates of the Department are very nearly correct. 



WHAT DOES 100 MEAN ? 



Inquiry is often made, by persons who have given little attention 

 to crop reporting, as to the basis or unit of percentage returns. It is 

 simply the application of the decimal system used in the United States 

 as the measure of money, and in France in the metric system, to the 

 accurate expression of crop estimates. In comparisons of area with 

 that of the previous crop, 100 represents the acreage of the previous 

 year. In product, the present may be compared with that of the pre- 

 vious year, or with an average yield, 100 being the basis in each case. 

 In reports of "condition" of growing crops, 100 is the standard of 

 full condition, representing perfect healthfulness, exemption from 

 injury from insects or drought or other cause, with average growth 

 and development. Condition of a crop can never go above 100, ex- • 

 cept from one cause, unusual or extraordinary development and vigor 

 of plant which more than counterbalances any deficiency in the stand 

 or other loss. 



As a rule, the existence of local drought, destruction by storm or 

 floods, insect injuries and blights, one or more of those various causes 

 of reduction of yield operates to reduce the average of condition in 

 the latter part of the season. Some crops are more liable to injury 

 than others. Cotton, for instance, in the most northern latitude of 

 its production, as in this country, has many enemies. It is a plant 

 that needs much sunshine and high temperature, with a moist but 

 not saturated soil, and therefore an evenly-distributed rainfall. It 

 is also liable to destruction by several distinct species of insects. 

 Therefore the averages are cpiite sure to fall after the June and July 

 investigation, as the results of fruiting are developed sometimes as 

 low as 66 in October in the worst years. The average of ten years 

 past is 80. 



What does the condition 100 mean in bushels or bales ? This is 

 often the impatient question of one who wants a prediction of the 

 harvest, who is determined to know what the fruit will be before the 

 blossom has appeared. It is easy to say, for any region or State, what 

 a full crop as represented by 100 should produce, as ascertained by 

 records of past production compared with the harvest averages of 

 each year. It is easy to calculate the present expectation from any 

 reported average. But the crop does not remain stationary, causes 

 of loss are developed from month to month, and the final result is 

 below 100, perhaps much below ; and instead of comparing the ]Drod- 

 uct with the latest average, inconsiderate persons often insist on com- 

 paring it with the record of an earlier month. There is no need of 



