REPORT OF THE STATISTICIAN. 



373 



unwilling to adopt a slower movement in extension of wlieat-growing. 

 Tlie following statement shows the status of production since 1870: 



It is sometimes assumed that the yield of wheat is declining in this 

 country. This conclusion is not warranted by the facts. The aver- 

 age for six years past is 12,1 bushels per acre, ranging from 10.4 to 

 13.6 annually. The average of the preceding ten years was 12.4. 

 Almost any period of five to eight years has heretofore made an 

 average very slightly exceeding 12 bushels. The older wheat-grow- 

 ing States make larger averages than the newly-settled regions, not 

 because the land is richer, but because it is more thoroughly culti- 

 vated. In the future, as rotation and thorough culture prevail, the 

 average rate of yield must be expected to increase, as it has done in 

 some sections already. 



While the yield is unimpaired, the reduction in price has been seri- 

 ous,_ so that the value of the product per acre has been only $10.32 

 against $13 for the preceding decade, a reduction of more than 20 

 per cent,, nearly 20 cgnts per bushel of the farm price. 



The estimates of production are made in advance of the record of 

 consumption, and, of course, in the absence of the requirements of 

 the export trade. For eight years past the consumption has been 

 calculated on a basis fixed by careful tests, and the distribution has 

 alwa-ys run parallel with the estimated production, with the slightest 

 possible discrepancy. In the following table, including the crops 

 made since the last census, the aggregate production is placed at 

 2,178,427,020 bushels, and the distribution makes an aggregate of 

 2,164,034,279 bushels. This leaves an apparent surplus *of about 

 14,000,000 for the whole period, which has all been absorbed, and 

 probably more, by losses in the lakes and by fire, showing on this 

 basis of consumption that the estimates, which are often held by 

 speculators to be too high, are really somewhat too low, though re- 

 markably close. The table is as follows: 



Years. 



1881 



1882 



1883 



1884 



1885 



Total . . . 



Average 



Production. 



Bushels. 

 38:3,280,090 

 504,185,470 

 421,086,160 

 512, 703, 900 

 357,112,000 



For food. 



Bushels. 



235,249,812 

 2.55, .500, 000 

 259, 500, 000 

 265,000,000 

 271,000,000 



,178,427,620 |l, 286, 249, 812 



435,685,524 257,249,962 



For seed. 



Bushels. 

 55,215,573 

 52, 770, 312 

 54, 68;B, 389 

 55, 266, 2.39 

 51,474,906 



Exportation. 



Bushels. 

 121,892,389 

 147,611,316 

 111,534,182 

 132, 570, 367 



94, 565, 794 



269,410,419 608,374,048 



53,882,084 I 121,674,810 



Per cent, 

 of expor- 

 tation. 



Total distri- 

 bution. 



Bushels. 



412,3.57.774 



4.56,081,628 



425,717,571 



452,836,600 



417,040,700 



2,164,0:^,279 



27.9 432,S06,8o6 



