REPORT OF THE STATISTICIAN". 385 



It is a notewortliy fact, and a cheering indication to growers of the 

 world's supply of cotton, that an increase of more than 16 per cent, 

 has caused a decline in export value (according to the record of ex- 

 ports for the year ended June 30) of less than 7 per cent. Had the 

 present crop been sold at the price paid for the previous one, the 

 growers would have received scarcely twenty million dollars more. 



The cotton movement, if assumed to be without error (and the two 

 statem.ents differ by 25,000 bales last year and 37,000 the year before), 

 does not necessarily represent exactly the product grown in a given 

 year, but does so substantially, and affords the best available test of 

 the accuracy of our crop returns. What is the result of this test? 



Stated briefly, the last four crops since the return of the present 

 Statistician to his work have been indicated, with one exception, with 

 nearly as much precision as by the ultimate record of the movement 

 itself, the discrepancies being a fraction of one per cent, No non- 

 oflficial estimates have approached the departmental results in degree 

 and uniformity of accuracy, and some of them have made annual dis- 

 crepancies of a fourth to half a million bales. 



In 1882 the October condition was 88, indicating 10 per cent, more 

 than an average product, and, compared with 66 for the previous year, 

 "would indicate nearly 7,000,000 bales." In November the returns 

 of yield per acre indicated more than 3,000,000,000 pounds of net lint, 

 but this was not given as the full estimate of the year's production. 

 In the final report the local estimates footed up 6,835.000 bales, which 

 was assumed to be slightly underestimated, the Statistician adding : 

 ** Should these returns of product prove conservative as usual, the 

 movement would not be less than 7,000,000 bales." The National 

 Cotton Exchange made its ultimate record of the movement 6,9-49,756 

 bales, and the Financial Chronicle 6,992,234 bales. 



In October, 1883, it was said: "Indications point to a crop a little 

 larger than that of 1881 (which was 5,456,048), but falling short of 

 last crop by more than 1,000,000 bales." The local estimates of yield 

 per acre pointed to a reduction of 14 to 15 per cent. The returns 

 gave expectation of about 6,000,000 bales, but the final report in Feb- 

 ruary indicated a crop somewhat less than 6,000,000 bales, or from 84 

 to 86 per cent, of the previous crop. This was 2 or 3 per cent, too 

 high, as the movement was 5,713,200 bales, between 82 and 83 per 

 cent, of the previous crop. This is the only season of recent years in 

 which the discrepancy was as much as 1 per cent. 



The crop of 1884, in October, was reported in lower condition than 

 in September by 8 points, and the prospect of a top crop, as reported, 

 was "reduced to a minimum," though the county estimates aver- 

 aged 0,36 of a bale per acre. The final report indicated a smaller 

 yield than the returns of condition in October, and the aggregate of 

 local estimates was 5,646,441 bales, and the Statistician summed up 

 the expectation from all these returns of "a crop of about 5.667,000 

 bales." The Financial Chronicle record was 5,669,021 bales, and 

 that of the National Cotton Exchange 5,706,165 bales. 



In October of 1885 the prosj)ect was more favorable than in No- 

 vember and December, The county estimates of yield per acre, when 

 consolidated, made an average of 36,75 of a bale per acre, which 

 would forecast a crop of nearly 6,667,000 bales. The returns of con- 

 dition the same month were equally favorable, indicating an increase 

 of 1,000,000 bales in round numbers, "subject to future meteorological 

 conditions," and not to be considered a final estimate, "as the date 

 25 AG— '86 



