412 REPORT OF THE COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE. 



nortllern hemisphere and in the early months of 1886 in the south- 

 ern, may be stated as follows: 



Bushels. 



Europe 1 , 184 . ()( )< ), 000 



North America 40!). ()0(l. 000 



South America 25, 000. 000 



India 287, 000, 000 



Australasia 37,000,000 



Africa and Western Asia 134, 000, 000 



Total 2, 076, 000, 000 



The product of Algeria, Egypt, Asia Minor, Persia, and other dis- 

 tricts included in Africa and Western Asia, is stated on commercial 

 authority, and cannot be vouched for as accurate. Most of the other 

 estimates which make the aggregates of this statement are official. 

 The grand aggregate of 2,076,000,000 bushels does not represent ab- 

 solutely the whole production of the world, as China and Asiatic 

 Russia are not considered (the latter credited with only four or five 

 million bushels), as the quantity is uncertain and has uo bearing 

 upon the commercial supply of Europe. 



(&) COMMERCIAL SUPPLY. 



The ordinary method of forecasting demand by an exhibit of com- 

 mercial stocks is unreliable, if not misleading. A large accumulation 

 of stocks may be strong presumptive evidence of large crops, yet the 

 visible supply is not necessarily in proportion to the invisible; nor 

 are the commercial sales of a period an infallible measure of the actual 

 consumption of that period. For instance, the receipts of foreign and 

 native wheat in the markets of Great Britain for thirty-six weeks uj) 

 to May 1, 1886, were 72,149,660 cwts. against 84,805,000 cwts. to May, 

 1885; and to May 1, 1884, they were 76,230,000 cwts. against 87,970,000 

 cwts. for a similar period of the previous year. The croi3s of the 

 world for 1882 and 1884, as shown above, were very large, and the 

 market movement of these years was heavy, but the invisible remain- 

 der was larger proportionally than the visible supj)ly, and contrib- 

 uted to a reduction of prices in succeeding years, while the fullness 

 of visible stocks of those years limited the demand for consumption in 

 the seasons following. 



In view of these considerations, it has been deemed best to ascertain 

 the actual production of the world and the normal consunij^tion of 

 the principal consuming countries, to afford an indication of the real 

 supplies available, both in the hands of producers and in the world's 

 markets. The absurdity of reliance on stocks alone is shown by the 

 fact that the average stocks of Great Britain on the 1st of April for 

 six years past have not been equal to three weeks' consumption, and 

 they have sometimes been largest when taken from a medium crop. 



The statement of production above shows that the year 1 884 was one 

 of large yield everywhere, and that 1885 had an average product in 

 Europe, a large yield in India and Australia, and a small crop in the 

 United States. The following table gives in round numbers the pro- 



