REPORT OF THE STATISTICIAN. 



415 



5.— THE COMING CROPS. 



(a) WHEAT. 



The supply of the commercial year 1886-87 is to come from the crops 

 already harvested in the southern hemisphere and in India, and those 

 to be liar vested during the next four months. The crop of India, grown 

 on an area reduced about one and three-fourths million acres, may 

 have yielded 2(35,000,000 bushels.' The Australasian crops are greatly 

 reduced, and from present information will not exceed 22,000,000 

 bushels. Those of South America are somewhat larger than last 

 year, how much is not yet known, but are not likely to increase the 

 product more than 5,000,000 bushels. From present information it is 

 fair to estimate a decrease of 32,000,000 bushels from the aggregate 

 of last year's production in the districts already harvested. 



The harvests of the northern hemisphere, in progress from the pres- 

 ent time to October, between 30'' and 60° north latitude, but mostly 

 in July and August, cannot now be foretold. With a continuance of 

 present conditions the product of winter wheat will exceed an aver- 

 age and produce nearly or quite 13 bushels per acre; and with spring 

 wheat, on an area equal to the breadth of last year and average con- 

 dition of growth, a total pi-oduct of about 465,000,000 bushels should 

 be expected. This would give a crop of 108,000,000 bushels larger 

 than that of last year. 



In Europe, the area of wheat in Great Biitain has been reduced 8 

 to 10 per cent., which means only 7,000,000 or 8,000,000 bushels at 

 best. In France the breadth is apparently as large as that of last 

 year. There is no indication of any material change in the acreage 

 of Europe, which will probably be about 94,000,000 acres, and pros- 

 pects are good up to the present date for a product equal to that 

 of last year — 1,184,000,000 bushels — though the course of the season 

 may yet cause a variation of 50,000,000 bushels above or below this 

 figure. The present average yield of Europe, as a whole, is only 

 about 13 bushels per acre, while that of the United States exceeds 13 

 bushels. 



It is a mistake to assume that the breadth of wheat of Europe has 

 recently been declining. There lias been a marked increase in Russia, 

 as in this country, in India, Australia, and South America, There 

 has been some increase in Hungary, Germany, and France since 1880. 

 The acreage of the following countries is given for five consecutive 

 years : 



Countries. 



Austria 



Hungary 



France 



Germany , 



Great Britain and Ireland 

 Netherlands 



Total 



1885. 



34,078,658 



1R84. 



34, 668, 165 



1883. 



2, 610, !)63 

 6,4'!5,,5i>8 

 16.813,242 

 4,744,717 

 2,713,aS2 

 214,0-40 



33,530,802 



1882. 



1881. 



2,511,308 

 6,161,272 

 17,060,1.54 

 4,408,826 

 3, 168, 800 

 229, 491 



2,455,276 

 6, 260, .5.58 

 17,195,971 

 4, 4S8, 995 

 2,967,059 

 219,200 



33,638,950 33,587,059 



The averages of yield in these countries range from 15 bushels in 

 Austria-Hungary to 28 in Great Britain, and the average of all for 

 five years is nearly 10 bushels. Russia has an area of nearly 3 J ,000,000 

 acres, and yields scarcely 8 bushels per acre. Other countries have 

 an aggregate of about 29,000,000 acres, and produce an average of 11 

 or 12 bushels per acre. 



