INSUFFICIENCY OF THE WORLD'S TIMBER SUPPLY. 385 



their normal production, and their foi'ests too, would be dis- 

 posed of completely in a very short time, revenue and capital 

 alike. 



A timber famine is thus within sight. 



The rise in forest produce, especially high-class produce, which 

 must be expected, will only serve to hasten the evil day. Wood- 

 production, in which time is the principal factor, indeed obeys 

 economic laws other than those which govern industrial or agri- 

 cultural production. As a general rule, any increase of price 

 paid by the consumer has the effect of stimulating production. 

 But in the case of wood-produce, an increase of price incites 

 thoughtless owners to realise the capital slowly accumulated by 

 preceding generations. Hence an increased demand means 

 increased destruction of capital, and consequent diminution of 

 permanent revenue (or legitimate output) in timber. 



The situation is therefore full of peril, and the need of instruct- 

 ing public opinion is urgent. 



Wherever it is not too late, the destruction of forest must be 

 stopped, either by legislation firmly and strictly applied, or by 

 persuading landowners that their true interest lies in safe-guard- 

 ing their capital or timber-producing (revenue-producing) stock, 

 and in cutting no more than the annual production of the soil, 

 which is the revenue or (timber) interest on the (timber) capital. 

 The pleasant and evil fiction, that a new country should be 

 " developed" by destroying its forests, must be reproved. The 

 production of timber should be the aim of every cultural opera- 

 tion and working plan whenever possible. Formerly it was held 

 that private owners could not undertake the production of timber, 

 because of the low rate of interest returned by a capital invested 

 in high forest. Now that the customary interest on stable 

 securities has got below 3 per cent., and is likely to go still lower, 

 the conditions are changed. It seems probable that a private 

 owner can now keep standards over coppice at a profit at least 

 equal to what he would get from other securities. He can also 

 in his fir woods grow sawyer's timber returning him 2 or 3 per 

 cent, on the capital involved, without reckoning anything for the 

 very certain rise that must take place in the price of timber. 

 These ideas are not generally received, and should be as widely 

 spread abroad as possible. 



The increase in the value of timber will also doubtless con- 

 tribute to diminish waste and induce care in the disposal of the 



