538 . REPORT OF THE COMMISSIONER OF 
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is none, for prices do not depend upon prophecy of future diminution — 
_of supplies, but upon stocks in sight. It is the policy of buyers to 
ignore all grain not in commercial hands, even when they have_ 
no doubt of its existence, thus postponing the evil day of higher 
values. A false latge is soon exposed, bringing decay of confi- - 
dence in the prophet. | 
The influence of overproduction on prices is seen in a comparison 
of the farm prices per bushel for the two periods, viz, $1.049 and 
$0.833, respectively, showing a reduction of 20.6 percent. The value ~ 
of an acre of wheat has declined from $13 to $10.06, a loss of 22. per 
cent. The yield has averaged three-tenths of a bushel less than for 
the former period, the difference being due to the extremely low 
yields of 1881 and 1885. The average has been 12.1 bushels per acre. | 
Any series of five years, not including both of these two, will show a 
larger fraction above 12 bushels as an average. The comparison 1s 
as follows: . 
Waare Total produc- Mores area | Total value caer Oldnee oe 
tion: OE CTOn. of crop. | bushel. |° acre. acre. 
Bushels. Acres. Cents. | Bushels. 
NSS ertensorattnvas do Aire ieee e hiss pets 498,549,868 | 37,986,717 | $474, 201, 850 OBL | 13.1 $12. 48 
PS 1 ict SSNS yee dile alate 383, 280,090 | 37,709,020 456, 880, 427 | 119.3 | 10.2 12; 12 
MIO ae Sec h k ah apk tens bye erie M 504, 185, 470 37, 067, 194 444, 602,125 88. 2 13.6 11.99 
ESky esc petene vara’ Seals fact hat haces 421,086,160 | 36,455, 598 385, 649, 272 | 91.0 11.6 10. 52 
RSS hs Geese pe ae gl oe 512,765, 000 | 39,475,885 | 330, 862, 260 64.5 * 13.0 8.38 
PSSD EIS ie ote home eniass eee | 357,112,000 | 34,189, 246 275, 320, 390 CR 10.4 8.05 
PRS Ele olsre 2 ideale vais oo aw beens ace | 457,218,000 | 36,806, 184 314, 226, 020 68.7 12.4 8.54 
TROT ai ie hoster lem teins eels | 456,329,000 | 37,641,783 | 310,612,960 68. 1 12.1 8.25 
Mota ee ck v4) 8):590,'525,588 /297,.3381, 622 120905355; S04 ih... «6c xs «|| 1.15, 0 attra ee 
Annual average........ | 448,815, 699 | 87,166,453 | 373,794, 413 $3.3.) Jie 10.06 
Annualaverage for pre- 
ceding ten years.....| 312, 152,728 | 25,187,414 | 327,407,258 104.9 12.4 13.00 . 
The changes of the year are a slight reduction of the winter-wheat 
area and an increase of the spring-wheat acreage, making an increase 
’- in the breadth of wheat of over 2 percent. The reduction of the win- 
ter variety, though small, is somewhat larger, actually, than it seems, 
by reason of the constant increase of population. Thus not to ad- 
vance is to fall away. We need not expect an absolute reduction of 
the wheat area, though it will almost certainly be less relatively in 
the future. 
The production of the year is ample for the wants of the core 
and for an exportation of about 125,000,000 bushels, without trene 
ing upon the small reserves of previous harvests. The estimates of 
production, as recorded in our reports, average 448,000,000 bushels, 
in round numbers, for seven years since 1880, not including the pres- 
ent year. The exportation averages nearly 136,000,000 bushels, and » 
with estimates of seed and bread the entire distribution averages over 
447,000,000 bushels. The difference is less than the losses by fire and 
foundering en route to market. These figures may not be absolute 
proof of the accuracy of the estimates, because the consumption itself 
is estimated. But as no one has furnished evidence to disprove the 
accuracy of the rate of consumption of 4% bushels per capita, there 
is no peg in existence upon which to hang a doubt of the substantial 
verity of the estimates. As the range of annual production is more 
than 150,000,000 bushels, and that of exportation as large proportion- 
