Aberdeen Fishery Statistics. 35 



We see from these Tables — 



1. That the average price of cod in 191G was just ahoixt four times 

 that of 1912, while we have just seen that for all fish taken together 

 the price was approximately trebled. But, 



2. so small was the catch of cod in 1915 and 1916 (say 17 per 

 cent, in the latter year of that of 1912), that the total value thereof 

 was still far below (50 and 69 per cent, respectively) that of 1912. 



3. Medium and small haddock both increased in value)»per cwt,, 

 more than threefold. And the increase in the case of small haddock 

 (336 per cent, in 1916) was all the more remarkable, inasmuch as 

 the landings of that fish in 1916 were very high, being about 43 per 

 cent, in excess of 1912. 



4. The increased price of plaice and of lemons in 1916 was less 

 than in the former cases, viz. 237 and 216 per cent, of 1912 

 respectively. It would seem that the level of prices actually 

 attained by these fish, 100s. a box and over, could scarcely be 

 increased without checking the demand and " spoiling the market." 

 It is also to be noticed that the total supplies landed of these two 

 fishes kept remarkably steady; they were, in fact, fully equal in 

 1916 to the average of the years 1912-14. 



For the further study and illustration of these statistics of 

 quantity and price or value, we may deal with our figures in various 

 ways ; but a very few such illustrations must suffice meanwhile. 



Eor instance, we may simply set forth the monthly average 

 prices, etc., in a continuous curve, as we have already done (Fig. 

 1) for the total catch and average price of all trawled fish. Or, as in 

 Fig. 2, we may superpose the monthly data for the different years, and 

 see, as in the present case, the fluctuation in price of small haddock 

 during 1912 and 1916, and at the same time the enormous excess of 

 price in the latter over the former year. A similar diagram (Fig. 3) 

 shows the corresponding fluctuation of price in the case of medium 

 plaice. In both of these cases the more or less regular and normal 

 fluctuation of prices within each year tends somewhat to complicate 

 the case, and to obscure the comparison we are trying to draw ; for 

 the one thing of special importance to us meanwhile is to gauge the 

 extent and manner in which prices have risen since the war began, 

 and by reason of causes directly connected with the war. 



The process of " smoothing," in groups of three (i.e. taking, in the 

 present case, the mean of three months at a time) has become very 

 familiar to us in the course of these reports ; and we have used it 

 for the very purpose of showing clearly and smoothly the nature of 

 the annual 2J6riodic ^fluctuation. But we are now concerned no 

 longer with the periodic fluctuation, but rather with the continuous 

 change or changes that have been in progress since the beginning of 

 the war. Accordingly, we may now extend our method, and smooth 

 not in groups of three months, but in groups of twelve : that is to 

 say, we may replace the average price obtained in December 1912 

 (for instance) by the average price for the whole twelve months of 

 1912, the average of January 1913 by that of the twelve months 

 February 1912 -January 1913, and so on. Instead of a single 

 annual mean for each year, we shall now have twelve times as 

 many. And the continuous series of values which we shall so 



