IQOI.] FAIRCHILD — CYCLONIC STORMS. 315 



vation of approaching cyclones. At the farthest this can be for only 

 two or three days ahead. With some approach to precision the 

 weather may be anticipated for 48 hours. The Weather Bureau 

 makes predictions for 36 hours. 



In reading- the weather predictions it should be kept in mind that 

 they are of necessity made to cover considerable territory. Within 

 the broad area minor changes, especially of precipitation, may occur. 

 In judging the success of the weather predictions most people take 

 note of the misses but neglect the hits. 



Attempts to predict daily weather for weeks ahead has no scien- 

 tific basis whatever, it is pure guesswork. 



CLIMATIC CHANGES. 



The ideas of people, especially elderly persons, that the winters 

 are not so cold, or the snows not so heavy as when they were young, 

 is wholly a mistake. The difference is with the experience or condi- 

 tion of the individual. 



The records of the weather taken in some countries for centuries, 

 and in this country for about a century do not indicate any certain 

 change in climate. There are secular variations, in which a few years 

 may vary slightly from the normal, but no permanent changes which 

 the observations can yet prove. That slow changes do occur is likely, 

 but they are so gradual that it will take centuries, perhaps, to deter- 

 mine them, 



COMPLAINTS OF THE W^EATHER. 



Personal impressions regarding the weather and climate are not 

 reliable basis of judgment. The individual overemphasizes particular 

 occurrences or exceptional phases and the personal equation is a large 

 factor. Comparatively few people who pronouce judgment on local 

 climate have sufificient experience with far-separated localities to make 

 a fair decision. The truth is given by the statistical records of the 

 climatic factors covering long periods, and not by personal recollec- 

 tions and opinions. 



The last two Weather Observers stationed at Rochester, men of 

 wide experience in professional study of climate and weather in several 

 other climatic provinces, and the most competent men to pass judg- 

 ment on the question, agree that Rochester's climate is ideal for the 

 latitude, and remarkably good ; that taking all elements into consider- 

 ation it is the finest inland climate in America. 



