268 PROCEEDINGS OF SECTION A. 



the Hon. Mr. Unmack, expressed a desire that the matter should be 

 discussed at the recent Brisbane Postal and Teleo:raph Conference, 

 and for this purpose Mr. Russell, and Mr. EUery, and myself were 

 invited to meet Mr. Wragge. I think we all felt that it was alto- 

 gether premature to attempt anything of the kind, at all events for 

 the present, and the suggested conference of meteorologists fell 

 through. HoweA'er desirable such seasonal forecasts maj- be, to 

 be of any practical value they must be reliable, or at least so far 

 generally verified by the results as to secure the confidence of the 

 community. Frequent or even occasional failure would bring the 

 system into contempt, and do tar more harm than good. We have 

 had instances of rashness in the prediction of droughts, which 

 A-ery seriously depreciated jiroperty, and we should move cautiously 

 where so many interests are affected. Meteorology is still far 

 from being an exact science, and the phenomena presented to us 

 are so complex as to render the prediction of the weather even a 

 few days in advance very often a matter of considerable difficulty. 

 I have always regarded what we are doing as paving the way to 

 further extensions of the system, with a view to the forecasts cover- 

 ing longer periods. This, however, can only be done by the 

 accumulation and intelligent discussion of the necessary data, and 

 the correlation of weather conditions over considerable areas of the 

 earth's surface. I have already made some attempts to do this, 

 but much remains to be done. 



I may, perhaps, add that, so far as I know. India is the only 

 country which has attempted anything like a systematic issue of 

 seasonal forecast's. These are mainly based on the amount of 

 snow falling during the previous winter on the Himalayas, and the 

 general character of the weather' in India during the five or six 

 months preceding the setting in of the south-west monsojn ; the 

 chief objects of the forecasts being to give some idea of the 

 probable rainfall during the ensuing monsoon. 



DROUGHTS. 

 Australia, lying between the parallels of 11° and 39° S. has a 

 tropical and sub-tropical climate, with monsoon summer rains on 

 the north coast and winter rains on the south coast, both extending 

 well inland. A great part — all the interior — is within the anti- 

 cj'c onic region of high pressure and dry south-east winds ; it is 

 therefore subject to severe droughts, more or less prolonged. The 

 driest portion appears to be a belt of country reaching from north 

 of the Great. Right and Lake Eyre, or about lat. 30°, to near the 

 north-west coast, which is swept nearly throughout the year by 

 the sovith-east trade. The climate of the eastern half of the con- 

 tinent is more favorable, as the monsoonal rains extend further 

 south over the coastal ranges, which fiu-m the watershed of the 

 large rivers and watercourses running through the interior on the 

 one side, and to the coast on the other. 



