392 president's address — section e. 



reef hopelessly wrecked. Robert Louis Stepheiison described the 

 catastrophe wirtli his vivid pen and foretold the issue with the insight 

 of the seer. Let me give you his concluding words : " Thus in what 

 seemed the veiy article of war, and within the duration of a single 

 day, the sword arm of each of the two angry Powers was broken; 

 their formidable ships reduced to junk; their disciplined hundreds to 

 a horde of castaways, fed with difficulty, the fear of whose misconduct 

 marred the sleep of their commanders. Both paused aghast ; botli 

 had time to recognise that not tlie whole Samoan Archipelago was 

 worth the loss in men and costly ships already suffered. The so-called 

 hurricane of 16th March made this a marking epoch in world 

 histoiy; directly, and at once, it brought about the CongTess and 

 Treaty of Berlin; indirectly, and by a process still continuing, it 

 founded the modem navy of the States. Coming yeai's and other 

 historians will declare the influence of that." 



The prophecy has been abundantly justified. The method of 

 agreement and not the chance of war has been accepted by the Great 

 Powers. The American Fleet is a substantial reality. In a few years 

 the Panama Canal will be open to ships of all classes, and Atlantic 

 traffic will have an easy and direct ingress into the Pacific. This 

 will plainly streng-then America's position in our ocean, and render 

 more unlikely than ever her withdrawal from Hawaii and the Philip- 

 pines. In fact, we may expect that the opening of the Canal will give 

 to the United States preponderance for years to come. And America 

 has continued the policy initiated in the Berlin Treaty. Quite recently 

 she has concluded an agreement with Japan, almost in the identical 

 terms of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. " The first paragraph, covering 

 ' a common aim, policy, and intention,' deals with the expressed wish 

 of the two Govenunents ' to encourage the free and peaceful develop- 

 ment of their commerce on the Pacific Ocean.' The next is the deter- 

 mination to maintain the existing status quo, and to defend the 

 principle " of equal opportunity for commerce and industry in China' ; 

 and the third asserts the need foi' preserving the independence and 

 integrity of China. Finally, in the event of trouble the two Govern- 

 ments are to communicate with each other. To all intents and 

 jiuiposes," continues the " Sydney Morning Herald," '" another Pacific 

 Triple Alliance has been established, and the concise terms in which 

 its existence is now advertised make the latest development the more 

 significant. Great Britain, Japan, and the United States ax*e practi- 

 cally hand in hand to guard the world's peace in the Pacific, and to 

 discuss frankly tlie various causes of possible friction as they arise. 

 The rest may be left to the course of events." 



" East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet," 

 writes Kipling. In the Pacific, East and West face with the ocean 

 common and free to each. Will there be tremendous conflict or will 

 mutual understanding allow both to work out their several destinies 

 in peace and amity? As reasonable men, surely we may hope for the 

 latter. The great Eastern nations cannot be destroyed. Nor is it 

 likely that the united Westerns can be overpowered. For instance, 

 coidd America and Gemiany afford to allow Australia to be oven'un 

 and occupied by an Eastern Power? What chance would they then 

 have of retaining their own outposts? That Japan and China, and 

 especially China, will be great world Powers no one can doubt. And 



