president's address. SECTION Ql., 513 



coirelated, and svich correlation is not infrequently unperceived until 

 the graphical representations are compared. It is for this reason that 

 graphs are of great value in discovering the interdependency of facts 

 which a priori seem to be independent. 



Secondly, gi'aphical representation has a considerable analytic 

 value; it enables one to distinguish, for example, the trend of facts 

 as referred to periods of vaiying length, and to discriminate between 

 minor oscillations or variations and general trend. Hence, graphical 

 analysis is of special value for prediction purposes, and is a great 

 safeguard against allowing too much weight to the figures for any 

 single epoch or period. 



11. Recent Interest in Statistics. — From the earliest times 

 publicists have naturally been deeply interested in statistical results. 

 It is, of course, one of his essential equipments. Recent years, how- 

 ever, have witnessed a striking change as regards the popular appre- 

 ciation of statistical matter. "'In 1903," said Mr. Bowley, in his 

 paper last September, on " The Improvement of Official Statistics," 

 " statisticians rather suddenly found their neglected wares in de- 

 mand," and he notes that leading articles, public speeches, &c., "teem 

 witlr statistical tables and arguments," though they do not always 

 show a clear appreciation of the nature and limitations of statistical 

 measurement. 



Every civilised countiy has now well-elaborated official statistics, 

 covering a wide range of its affairs. Political statistics, in the modern 

 sense, arise from a clearer perception of what is essential for pro- 

 ductive administx-ation, and for what has been called, in the wider 

 sense of the term, police regulation. The wise development of any 

 territory demands that its affairs should be brought under systematic 

 review. It is somewhat difficult, it is true, to distinguish between 

 results which may be properly credited to wise or bad government and 

 what may more propeily be credit3d to the lavishness or niggardliness' 

 ol Nature. And the "' post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy may easily 

 assert, itself in this region. Nevertheless, it is universally recognised 

 that an adequate statistic is essential to a critical review of a 

 country's progress, and this is the raison d'etre of the various depart- 

 nients thereof, whether they exist in the restricted field of an isolated 

 branch of an administration or are sections of the work of a properly- 

 organised bureau. 



There is another direction in which the modem interest in 

 statistics is of promise. Not only are economic facts becoming more 

 susceptible of rational analysis, but great ranges of vital phenomena 

 are also disclosing their inner meaning. In the study of individual 

 cases one sees, of course, only the individual variations; in the study 

 of aggregates or properly-formed averages one sees the regularities of 

 the general trend of human affairs. 



12. Characteristic Features of Modern Statistics. — The most 

 striking feature of modern statistics is, however, its analytic efficiency. 

 This may best be indicated by reference to an illustrative instance. 

 The aggregate increase of population, or the increase by births, 

 or by immigration, or aggregate diminution by deaths and 

 departures, or by either, or the frequency or fertility of marriage, 

 expressed as rates, are* strictly speaking, crude results, and are not 



2h 



