478 PROCEEDINGS OF SECTION GI. 



A scrutiny of the figures just given will shew that Australia 

 is sharing in what appears to be practically a world-wide tendency 

 to a restriction in the birth-rate. 



To what cause or causes is this world wide decline in the birth 

 rate due, and what causes, if any, are operative in Australia, that 

 are not operative in other countries ? It must at once be confessed 

 that the problem is one on which statistics can at present throw but 

 a feeble light. Of ex cathedra statement, and arguments based on 

 a more or less limited personal experience, there is a superfluity, 

 but of definitely correlated statistics bearing on the subject there 

 is very little of real value. And this is especially a matter in which 

 — as G. B. Longstaff well says — " without statistics you can prove 

 nothing." Under the circumstances, therefore, one must perforce 

 make the best use of the materials available, taking special care 

 to avoid the pitfalls alluded to in the introductory paragraphs of 

 this paper. In the first place, records shew that the average 

 number of children per married mother in the Commonwealth is 

 between 3 and 4. This is the actual average, but the question 

 naturally presents itself as to what is the possible average. Ex- 

 cluding those married very early and very late in life, statistics 

 show that the period of potential fertility of the married woman in 

 the Commonwealth averages about 22 years. By period of potential 

 fertility is meant the number of years elapsing between date of 

 marriage and age 45, which may be taken as the ordinary limit 

 of productiveness. What then is the potential average family ? 

 Here we enter at once into the realms of guesswork. I have ob- 

 tained opinions from various medical men, and their estimates 

 range from 5 to 7, the estimates, of course, being based on the 

 assumption that artificial checks were not resorted to, and due 

 allowance being made for various factors, such as the ages of the 

 husbands and wives, etc. 



At this stage, it seems to me that all that can be said is that 

 marriages in the Commonwealth are not productive of as many 

 children as they might be. But without further inquiry one cannot 

 from these premises raise the cry of " race suicide," nor is one 

 justified in immediately joining the ranks of those who, knowing 

 little or nothing about the subject, wisely nod their heads and 

 preach about the weakening of Australia's moral foundations. 

 Brushing aside for a time the litter of empirical assertion and in- 

 conclusive argument about the widespread existence of deliberate 

 limitation, let us examine some other factors which may or may not 

 bear on the question of the decline in the birth rate. 



We have seen that the tendency is practically a world-wide 

 one. Is it not just possible that this decline is in some measure 

 due to the operation of natural law, and if so, how much of the 

 deliberate limitation of the family is due to the promptings of 

 this law, and how much to what the clergy and the medical profes- 

 sion at all events stigmatise as hideous immorality. We are accus- 

 tomed nowadays to hearing that women do not care for children 

 as they did in the good old days, that they have become too selfish 



