506 GAME BIRDS, WILD-FOWL AND SHORE BIRDS. 



The average percentages of increase and decrease contained 

 in this table should not be given too much weight, since in 

 the nature of the case no estimate of this kind is authoritative 

 except in the few cases where records of the number of birds 

 seen have been kept annually for many years. The more 

 conservative observers hesitate to attempt such estimates 

 and some refuse to give any figures. Such as are given are 

 averaged above for the reason that such an average will prob- 

 ably approximate the facts; but as very few observers have 

 stated the exact time during which the increase or decrease of 

 each species has been observed, it is unsafe to attempt to analyze 

 the figures regarding each species or to make deductions 

 from them. It should be noted that a decrease of fifty per 

 cent, offsets a subsequent increase of one hundred per cent. 

 In other words, if a species has been reduced one-half, or fifty 

 per cent., in numbers, it must then double its numbers, or 

 increase them one hundred per cent., to reach its original 

 abundance. Therefore, in cases where birds have been diminish- 

 ing for years it will require a very large percentage of increase 

 to restore them to their former numbers. For this reason the 

 percentages of increase in this table are not very significant. 



Long hours of study of the original reports on which the 

 above table is based lead me to believe that as it stands it 

 leaves too optimistic an impression of the present status of 

 game birds, shore birds and wild-fowl in Massachusetts. The 

 reasons for this belief follow: — 



1. Many of the names of the rarer birds were not included 

 in the circular requesting information, hence they do not 

 appear in the table, and we get no record there of their decrease. 



2. There are reports of increase in the numbers of all 

 species included in the circular except the Passenger Pigeon, 

 Eskimo Curlew, Long-billed Curlew, Marbled Godwit and 

 Killdeer Plover, all of which have been nearly and two quite 

 extirpated from Massachusetts. Many of the other species 

 are well known to be decreasing generally, and reports of 

 increase must be owing to local and exceptional conditions. 



3. The number of those who regard certain species as in- 

 creasing or holding their own is larger than the facts will 



