104 



the future. Again, it is seen that already the average freight rate on 

 all lumber, by weight, has risen above that from the Southern states, 

 due to the 60 per cent greater cost and the increasing quantity of western 

 lumber. Finally, the southern freight rates are seen to average nearly 

 two and a half times those from the Lake states, while the western 

 freights reach four times the Lake states rates. At present, these west- 

 ern freight rates are fixed partly to meet southern competition. The 

 rate per mile on 100 lbs. of lumber for the diflferent regions is shown 

 below. 



Region 



Aver, haul, 



miles 



Aver, freight 

 rate per 100 

 lbs. (cents) 



Aver, rate per 



mile of haul 



on 100 lbs. 



(cents) 



Southern 

 Western 

 Lake states 

 Central and East. 



952 



2,158 



371 



496 



41.70 

 69.18 

 17.29 

 31.04 



.0438 

 .0321 

 .0466 

 .0625 



Thus the present rate on western lumber per 100 lbs. for one mile 

 is but 73 per cent of that from the South. If raised to an equal rate, 

 the cost of freight from the West would be increased 26 per cent over 

 present rates. This will probably not occur, since long hauls are given 

 a proportional reduction in rates over shorter hauls on account of 

 equality of terminal charges. But with southern pine eliminated, the 

 tendency will be for the railroads to secure an upward readjustment of 

 freight rates on western lumber, the only other restraining influence being 

 water transportation. 



That the freight bill on lumber, now close to $30,000,000, will 

 steadily increase by the substitution of western for southern and Lake 

 states lumber is inevitable. With this increase, the consumer will have 

 to pay proportionately more for his lumber than this increase indicates, 

 since basic costs delivered become the basis for computing retail ex- 

 pense and profit. But the greatest danger lies in the fact that by the 

 law of marginal costs, the prices of southern and Lake states softwood 

 lumber will ultimately be determined by that of the Pacific coast ship- 

 ments, and this freight charge will be added, not merely to these western 

 shipments but to the entire remaining supply. The deduction can be 

 drawn — since southern pine lumber can be produced in reasonable 

 quantities to replace the vanishing present supply and can be laid down 

 at 60 per cent of the cost of western lumber — that, next to the Lake 

 states, the South should eventually furnish the larger part of tlie needed 



