522 PROCEEDINGS OF SECTION F. 



topmost point in 1853, and begins to turn down again under 

 the influence of two causes ; first, the cessation of wild 

 consignments on speculation from England ; second, and 

 more important, the cultivation of the land by the community, 

 which began to produce its own food-stuffs. Thus the line 

 of imports continues steadily to decline, till the year 1865, 

 when the first protective duty of ten per cent, was imposed. 

 The natural result of such an impost would be to send up the 

 line of imports for a time, as importers hastened to lay in 

 iheir stocks before the duty would become payable ; and so 

 we find the line takes a sharp turn upwards. Of course when 

 trade returns to its ordinary channels this will be compen- 

 sated to some extent by a sharp decline whilst the importers 

 are working off the heavy stocks they have laid in. That 

 this took place is evident on inspection. 



What we should then naturally expect to see, would be a 

 permanent lowering of the line as the effect of the imposition 

 of a protective duty. But we see no such thing. After a 

 temporary turn downwards, the line rises to its normal height. 

 Then in 1871 there is an increase of protective duties, which 

 thereafter stand at an average of 15 per cent. This shows 

 no effect whatever. For two years afterwards the line of 

 imports rises with the most complete indifference to protective 

 imposts ; and having reached a comparatively high level it 

 stays there. Nor does the imposition of duties of 20 per cent. 

 in 1874 show any decline of such a character that it can be 

 attributed to their influence. The increase of the duties to 

 25 per cent, in 1 880 shows no tendency to bring down the 

 line of imports. VVhatever trifling decline there had been 

 before is now made good in the two years immediately 

 following the imposition of the higher duties. Since that date 

 the duties have been steadily rising, and one would have 

 expected as a consequence that the line of imports would have 

 fallen. No such result, however, is visible. The line of 

 imports goes on with the most provoking calmness, paying no 

 heed to the vain schemes of men. 



A twenty-five years' retrospect therefore shows that our 

 protective duties have not diminished the amount of our 

 imports, and therefore that they have failed of their primary 

 purpose. But in using any such sets of figures we must 

 exercise great care in seeing that our conclusions are justifiable. 

 It might easily be the case, for instance, that the amount of 

 our imports had a natural tendency to increase as the pros- 

 perity of the community augmented, and that our protective 



