208 ANNUAL REPORT SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION, 1957 



velopment of substitutes is such that so far as material prosperity is 

 concerned the possibilities do indeed seem limitless. 



Much has been written in recent months about the shortage of 

 scientists and engineers. This seems to be a worldwide problem and, 

 as might be expected, is most acute where the development of tech- 

 nology is the most intense. It would seem to be axiomatic that the 

 brave new world of plenty so earnestly desired cannot be attained 

 without an adequate supply of scientists and engineers. To me, and 

 I am sure to many of you, it seems somewhat surprising that so much 

 campaigning and propaganda should be necessary to correct a short- 

 age so obvious. In this area, however disappointing and annoying 

 delays may have been, forces are now beginning to act in the direction 

 to correct the dislocation. That at least is reassuring. 



Following not more than a decade or two behind the Russians, in 

 this country and in fact in the free world at large we are now be- 

 latedly beginning to use a very potent force — the incentive system — to 

 correct the shortage. Once the forces acting can be identified, we can 

 isolate trends and begin to foresee at least the immediate future. 

 Accordingly, since this nation chose not to act on this problem until 

 the shortage was upon us, I will now venture to predict the following 

 sequence of events : 



1. A continuation of the current hectic recruiting campaign with 

 increasing salary scales for anyone with a semblance of training in 

 science or technology, and particularly for people with advanced 

 degrees. 



2. A marked decrease in emphasis on quality in our schools to meet 

 the increasing popular demand for quantity. 



3. A period of progressively diminishing returns to industry and 

 society from the attempt to substitute standardization and quantity 

 for quality in an essential creative activity. 



4. A period of disenchantment with paper credentials as a substi- 

 tute for education, and finally a renewed appreciation of scholarship 

 and achievement. 



There is nothing either profound or new in this cycle. It is an 

 example of the "hunting" process under the action of central forces, 

 which is familiar to all of us. It is interesting, however, to speculate 

 upon the time scale involved. 



There is now public recognition of the problem created by the short- 

 age of trained personnel of all kinds. It happens to be, however, 

 just about 10 years since this problem with regard to scientists and 

 engineers had already reached the table-pounding stage on the part 

 of a few forward-looking individuals in Washington such as Van- 

 nevar Bush, Merriam Trytten, and Alan Waterman. We must con- 

 clude, then, that in matters of this kind our particular type of society 



