MINERALS OF THE UNITED STATES — PEHRSON 191 



public, but the consumer cannot be expected to assume an unreason- 

 able burden on this account. 



Our position in iron ore presents a problem for the near future, 

 but it is confidently expected that American ingenuity and enterprise 

 will solve it in a satisfactory manner. 



Petroleum. — To forecast future trends in domestic production and 

 consumption of petroleum taxes the ability of the most ambitious 

 crystal-gazers. The difficulty arises in trying to reconcile the extraor- 

 dinary growth of this industry with the relatively limited reserves 

 reported to be available. The American Petroleum Institute estimates 

 known or proved reserves at approximately 20 billion barrels. Last 

 year we produced 1.7 billion barrels of crude oil so that the reserve is 

 equivalent to about a 12-year supply at the 1944 rate of extraction. 

 Most experts anticipate the discovery of more oil, but few of them 

 venture a guess as to how much or at what rate. Wallace E. Pratt's 

 estimate of an ultimate yield of at least 100 billion barrels already 

 has been mentioned. On this basis we have a total speculative reserve 

 of 70 billion ; 30 billion barrels have been produced to date. Even this 

 quantity of oil, however, provides only about a 40-year supply. For- 

 tunately our chemical brethren have devised methods of making 

 petroleum products from abundantly available raw materials so that 

 in the long run we need not worry about shortages. For the time being, 

 however, your daily newspaper gives evidence that current supplies 

 are far from ample to meet all demands although all military and 

 essential industrial and civilian needs are being met. 



I shall not discuss the present situation other than to call attention 

 to the concern expressed by some authorities over the declining rate 

 of discovery. In discussing this problem in a hearing on synthetic 

 liquid fuels conducted by a Subcommittee of the Senate Committee on 

 Public Lands and Surveys in August 1943, William B. Heroy, then 

 Director of Keserves for the Petroleum Administration for War, pre- 

 sented an analysis of discovery experience from 1936 to 1942. During 

 this period, despite increased geophysical work and wildcat drilling 

 by the industry, the number of new fields reported increased from 

 162 to 348 but the total estimated proved and possible new reserves dis- 

 covered declined over 75 percent; the quantity per field declined from 

 14.8 million to 1.5 million barrels. In the latter year crude oil produc- 

 tion averaged 3.8 million barrels per day. After pointing out that there 

 were divergent opinions on the outlook for future discoveries, Heroy 

 stated that, in his opinion, the facts did not warrant a defeatist atti- 

 tude, but that the public and the industry should realize the bonanza 

 days of oil discovery, for the most part, belong to history. 



Unless there is improvement in the rate of discovery, it would ap- 

 pear that production may be expected to decline in the near future. 



