192 ANNUAL REPORT SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION, 1945 



Against this is the ever-increasing demand for petroleum. The per- 

 capita consumption has increased from less than half a barrel in 1900 

 to 12.1 barrels in 1914, with the upward trend continuing at a rapid 

 rate. No prediction of future trends can be made with assurance be- 

 cause of the uncertainty as to various pertinent factors. It is believed 

 in some quarters that the use of automobiles was approaching satura- 

 tion before the war, and that the increase in per-capita consumption 

 of motor fuel should taper off. This use normally accounts for about 

 45 percent of the oil consumed, the remainder being used largely for 

 heating purposes. Higher prices that would most certainly result 

 from a decline in crude-petroleum supplies would have pronounced 

 effects on the use of oil for heating and might influence the market 

 for motor fuels. The expectation of a sharp falling-off in the rate 

 of increase in per-capita consumption seems reasonable in the near 

 future but its quantitative significance cannot be appraised. At the 

 1944 rate oil demands in 1970 with the anticipated 13 percent increase 

 in population would be 1.9 billion barrels. This would seem to be a 

 minimum expectation. 



Presently known petroleum reserves would not permit production 

 to meet even the minimum demand 25 years hence. Thus if future 

 discoveries fail to remedy the situation we are faced with the need 

 for developing supplemental sources of supply. Under peacetime con- 

 ditions substantial quantities of oil could be obtained from the Carib- 

 bean area and if necessary from more distant sources. This would 

 seem to be the most economical solution of the problem. If for any 

 reason foreign supplies were unavailable we can turn to other domestic 

 sources. Secondary recovery from depleted oil structures has begun 

 already and could be increased considerably at higher prices. Syn- 

 thetic liquid fuels offer a feasible though more costly solution. For 

 this purpose natural gas offers the cheapest source of these products 

 for the immediate future, but the supply is relatively small. Tar 

 sands, oil shale, and coal (including lignite), also are available, and 

 in the aggregate represent an enormous reserve. The largest though 

 not necessarily the lowest cost source of synthetic liquid fuels is coal. 

 According to Dr. A. C. Fieldner, Chief of the Fuels and Explosives 

 Branch of the Bureau of Mines, synthetic motor fuel can probably 

 be made from coal at 18 cents per gallon in large plants under normal 

 conditions. He believes that costs of 12 to 15 cents are possible after 

 industry has fully developed the techniques. Present costs of pro- 

 ducing gasoline from crude petroleum are approximately 5 cents per 

 gallon. 



The higher costs of synthetic petroleum products doubtless will 

 necessitate many changes in industries now using the natural oils. 

 This together with the public need for low-cost gasoline probably 

 will cause a shift to imported petroleum in advance of large-scale 



