242 
simism to extreme optimism. For 
example, a representative of the State 
Department recently testifying before 
a committee of the United States 
Senate stated with somewhat of a 
psychic finality that the reason why we 
have not found more new oil is 
“Because the oil is not there to be 
found.” Far more to the point, it 
seems to me, would be to reason that 
because of the recent discovery at the 
Leduc, or South Edmonton field, in 
Alberta, for example, we have opened 
our minds to vast new possibilities in 
western Canada. Not one pool less, 
but rather many pools more will result 
from this one discovery. 
The great question facing us now is 
how long can we continue to replace 
our annual consumption of petroleum 
through discoveries of new oil and gas 
fields? When must we look to other 
sources—either substitutes or imports 
from other continents? If we have no 
more oil to discover, then it is not too 
soon to start working on some alternate 
solution. Our needs are great and are 
constantly increasing. The answer to 
this problem of adequate supply of 
petroleum may well become critical 
to our very existence. 
What help can geology give on this 
problem? Because petroleum is found 
in the rocks and the earth, and be- 
cause we, as geologists, represent the 
science which is concerned with rocks 
and the earth, we are, whether we 
wish it or not, faced with a great public 
responsibility. We are expected to 
keep the people of North America ad- 
vised on the prospects of adequate 
future discoveries of petroleum on this 
continent. Geology, of all the sci- 
ences, offers the key to the evaluation 
of the ultimate extent of our mineral 
resources. It is my contention that, 
as geologists, the problem is squarely 
in our laps, and that our highest social 
purpose—the finding of new mineral 
deposits—is being put to a test as 
never before. 
During times of world peace, the 
petroleum resources of the world are 
ample to take care of all requirements 
ANNUAL REPORT SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION, 1948 
for generations to come. Petroleum 
can be moved readily from one con- 
tinent to another, and the importing 
of petroleum is a very simple and obvi- 
ous answer to the lack of it in any 
part of the world. However, as ten- 
sions multiply and international rela- 
tions become strained, each nation 
must be prepared to depend entirely 
on its own resources—that is, those 
resources which it can protect. In our 
case, once we on this continent become 
dependent on a foreign or an ocean- 
borne supply, not only of petroleum 
but of every other mineral substance 
as well, our world position is weakened 
and our defense and self-preservation 
become proportionately vulnerable. 
If we cannot import petroleum with 
safety to our future, what are the alter- 
natives? The first is to manufacture 
substitute fuels from our great reserves 
of coal, oil shales, and tar sands. This 
seems to offer a solution which is safe, 
ample in quantity of raw material, and 
which is technically possible now. The 
cost is great, however, compared to 
naturally occurring liquid fuels, and 
there are many problems which re- 
main to be worked out if such methods 
are called upon to supply anything 
more than nominal amounts of petro- 
leum products. But, because there is 
such a vast amount of hydrocarbon 
material contained in these deposits, 
nothing should be left undone which 
would help make it available for use. 
The second alternative is very simple 
to state but is difficult to achieve. It is 
to increase oil-field discovery within 
the continental borders of North Aner- 
ica to keep pace with the rising needs. 
It is this solution that I would like to 
discuss with you more fully. 
If we are to expand our discovery 
rate, the problem naturally falls into 
two parts. First, is there enough new 
oil to be discovered? and second, How 
is it to be found? The finding of it is 
readily answered—more drilling. Oil 
and gas are found in only one way, 
that is by the drilling of wells. The 
number of dry holes in some of the 
productive regions of the United States 
