384 
Tasre I.—Estimates of the world’s population * 
Authority Date Population 
Bry IGE VASS CUS aye relay stele ene oxele 1908 1, 626 
Sin/GjHe Knibbse asics se 1914 1, 649 
MimesitAtlashecen, ve cee 1921 1, 646 
International Institute of 
ACTICUItUReG sae eee eee 1921 1, 820 
Statistical Yearbook of the 
League of Nations...... 11931 2, 025 
O'siaiiieneleisrareveyerenstofelers 1940 2,145 
* Levasseur, La répartition de la race 
humaine, in the Bulletin de l’Institut Inter- 
national de Statistique, 1909, pp. 48-63; 
Knibbs, The mathematical theory of 
population—Appendix A to the First Census 
of the Commonwealth of Australia, 1917, 
p- 31; The Times’ Atlas, London, 1922, 
plates 5 and 7; International Yearbook of 
Agricultural Statistics, 1909-1921, published 
in 1922 at Rome; Statistical Yearbooks of 
the League of Nations, 11932—=335 andal939— 
40. See also A. M. (now Sir Alexander) 
Carr-Saunders’ World Population, Oxford, 
1936. ae 
These estimates do not form a con- 
cordant series. In Europe and North 
America the chief areas of doubt were 
Russia and Mexico respectively. In 
Asia the whole difference may be ex- 
plained by various estimates of the 
population of China; but there is equal 
uncertainty as to the numbers of the 
peoples of southwest Asia. ‘There were 
wide differences in the estimates of 
the population of Africa, which illus- 
trate the difficulty in respect to the 
numbers of barbarian peoples. Esti- 
mates of the population of the Belgian 
Congo have ranged from 30 millions 
down to 8 millions.® 
The next table (2) states some of the 
recent estimates of the population of 
China, to illustrate the differences in 
regard to the principal area of doubt 
in estimating the total numbers of 
mankind. 
5 E. M. East, Mankind at the Crossroads, 
p. 100, London, 1924; Levasseur, op. cit., 
gives 20 millions. Philip’s Handy Reference 
Atlas, London, gives 16 millions in 1900 and 
20 millions in 1913. Annuaire de la Belgique 
et de la Congo Belge, 1914, gives 15 millions, 
and in 1945, 10 millions. 
ANNUAL REPORT SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION, 1948 
TABLE 2.—Population of China and its 
dependencies * 
Popula- 
Authority Date tion in 
millions 
Mingchingpeng Census. ..} 1910 324 
Government Gazette, 
IReKingierarictrnee ee 1911 315 
China Continuation Com- 
ATUICECS ee eee ke erste we ee 1918 441 
Chinese Post Office...... 1920 428 
fumes? vAtlasmmnce nies 1921 321 
Chinese Maritime Customs} 1922 443 
Chinese Post Office...... 1922 433 
Statistical Yearbook of the 
League of Nations..... 1931 450? 
Ministry of the Interior 
(Nanking) hewcaepre ie 1931 475 
Statesman’s Yearbook. . 1931 486 
Statistical Yearbook of the 
League of Nations..... 1940 450? 
Statesman’s Yearbook....] 1946 458 
* The first and fourth figures are from the 
China Yearbook, 1922; the second, sixth, 
seventh, ninth, tenth, and twelfth from the 
Statesman’s Yearbook, 1924, 1932 and 1946; 
the third is from P. M. Roxby’s The dis- 
tribution of population in China, in the 
Geographical Review, January 1925; the 
fifth is from plate 7 of the Atlas. 
The census of 1910, which was the 
basis of the estimate of 1911 and per- 
haps also for that of the Times’ 
Atlas, was a census of households. 
The multiplying factor (the assumed 
average number of persons per house- 
hold) was not the same in all the prov- 
inces, and is open to doubt. 
From the figures here given it ap- 
pears that the population of the world 
has increased by about 25 percent 
since 1911, and that of China by 
nearly 50 percent. But since 1911 
China has suffered from revolution, 
followed by years of internal disorder, 
from civil war, and from foreign in- 
vasion on a very large scale. There 
have also been floods and famine and 
pestilence. The extent of these dis- 
asters and their persistence over more 
than 30 years make it unlikely that 
there has been any considerable in- 
crease in the population of China over 
this period. In India the influenza 
epidemics of 1918-20 almost canceled 
