﻿320 
  ANNLTAL 
  REPORT 
  SMITHSONIAN 
  INSTITUTION, 
  192 
  9 
  

  

  events 
  of 
  life 
  happen 
  frequently 
  because 
  they 
  are 
  very 
  probable, 
  

   whilst 
  the 
  improbable 
  things 
  happen 
  on 
  an 
  average 
  relatively 
  rarely. 
  

   The 
  celebrated 
  problem 
  of 
  the 
  "typewriting 
  monkeys" 
  may 
  be 
  

   cited 
  as 
  an 
  example. 
  If 
  six 
  monkeys 
  were 
  set 
  before 
  six 
  typewriters 
  

   and 
  allowed 
  to 
  hit 
  the 
  keys 
  at 
  their 
  own 
  sweet 
  will, 
  how 
  long 
  would 
  it 
  

   be 
  before 
  they 
  produced 
  — 
  by 
  mere 
  chance— 
  all 
  the 
  written 
  books 
  in 
  

   the 
  British 
  Museum? 
  It 
  would 
  be 
  a 
  very 
  long, 
  but 
  not 
  an 
  infinitely 
  

   long, 
  time. 
  

  

  Now 
  the 
  second 
  law 
  of 
  thermodynamics, 
  to 
  the 
  scrutiny 
  of 
  which 
  we 
  

   subjected 
  the 
  phenomena 
  of 
  life, 
  is 
  purely 
  a 
  law 
  of 
  statistical 
  proba- 
  

   bility. 
  The 
  odds 
  against 
  Mr. 
  Home, 
  the 
  celebrated 
  medium 
  of 
  former 
  

   days, 
  levitating 
  without 
  any 
  compensating 
  work 
  or 
  energy 
  effect, 
  are 
  

   enormously 
  heavy. 
  The 
  uncoordinated 
  energy 
  in 
  and 
  around 
  Mr. 
  

   Home 
  might 
  indeed 
  spontaneously 
  convert 
  a 
  part 
  of 
  itself 
  into 
  the 
  

   coordinated 
  energy 
  of 
  Mr. 
  Home 
  rising 
  majestically 
  into 
  the 
  air, 
  but 
  

   the 
  safe 
  odds 
  against 
  that 
  happening 
  are 
  simply 
  terrific. 
  The 
  ordi- 
  

   nary 
  large-scale 
  happenings 
  of 
  the 
  world, 
  with 
  which 
  we 
  are 
  so 
  familiar, 
  

   are 
  simply 
  events 
  where 
  the 
  odds 
  on 
  are 
  gigantically 
  enormous. 
  The 
  

   coming 
  down 
  of 
  Mr. 
  Home 
  with 
  a 
  bump 
  is 
  an 
  event 
  on 
  which 
  we 
  

   could 
  safely 
  bet, 
  with 
  an 
  assurance 
  of 
  success 
  quite 
  unknown 
  in 
  racing 
  

   or 
  roulette. 
  The 
  theory 
  of 
  probability 
  tells 
  us 
  that 
  there 
  alwavs 
  exist 
  

   fluctuations 
  from 
  the 
  most 
  probable 
  event. 
  In 
  the 
  physicochemical 
  

   world 
  of 
  atoms, 
  molecules, 
  and 
  waves 
  these 
  fluctuations 
  are 
  ordinarily 
  

   imperceptible, 
  owing 
  to 
  the 
  enormous 
  number 
  of 
  individuals 
  con- 
  

   cerned. 
  In 
  very 
  small 
  regions 
  of 
  space, 
  however, 
  these 
  fluctuations 
  

   become 
  important, 
  and 
  the 
  second 
  law 
  of 
  thermodynamics 
  ceases 
  to 
  

   run. 
  We 
  have 
  seen 
  that 
  the 
  structure 
  of 
  living 
  protoplasm 
  is 
  extra- 
  

   ordinarily 
  fine 
  and 
  delicate. 
  Do 
  events 
  happen 
  here 
  which 
  are 
  to 
  be 
  

   classed 
  as 
  molecular 
  fluctuations, 
  or 
  even 
  as 
  individual 
  molecular 
  

   events, 
  rather 
  than 
  as 
  the 
  mass 
  probabilities 
  which 
  have 
  led 
  men 
  to 
  

   formulate 
  the 
  second 
  law? 
  Something 
  of 
  that 
  sort 
  was 
  probably 
  in 
  

   the 
  mind 
  of 
  Helmholtz 
  when 
  he 
  doubted 
  the 
  application 
  of 
  this 
  law 
  to 
  

   the 
  phenomena 
  of 
  hfe, 
  owing 
  to 
  the 
  fineness 
  of 
  the 
  structures 
  involved. 
  

   The 
  reasoning 
  of 
  Guye 
  bears 
  rather 
  on 
  the 
  origin 
  of 
  life. 
  Is 
  the 
  spon- 
  

   taneous 
  birth 
  of 
  a 
  minute 
  living 
  organism, 
  he 
  asks, 
  simply 
  a 
  very 
  rare 
  

   event, 
  an 
  exceedingly 
  improbable 
  fluctuation 
  from 
  the 
  average? 
  

   This 
  is 
  a 
  fascinating 
  point 
  of 
  view, 
  but 
  it 
  possesses 
  one 
  drawback. 
  

   What 
  is 
  there 
  to 
  stabilize 
  and 
  fix 
  this 
  rare 
  event 
  when 
  it 
  occurs? 
  

   Guye 
  has 
  himself 
  realized 
  this 
  difficulty, 
  but 
  it 
  may 
  not 
  be 
  an 
  insur- 
  

   mountable 
  one. 
  Such 
  rare 
  fluctuations 
  may 
  occasionally 
  cause 
  matter 
  

   and 
  energy 
  to 
  arrive 
  at 
  peculiar 
  critical 
  states 
  where 
  and 
  whence 
  the 
  

   curve 
  of 
  happening, 
  the 
  world 
  space-time 
  line, 
  starts 
  out 
  on 
  a 
  different 
  

   path, 
  and 
  a 
  new 
  adventure 
  arises 
  in 
  the 
  hidden 
  microcosmos. 
  

  

  If 
  life 
  has 
  sprung 
  from 
  the 
  nonliving, 
  its 
  earliest 
  forms 
  must 
  have 
  

   been 
  (or 
  must 
  be?) 
  excessively 
  minute. 
  We 
  must 
  look 
  for 
  these, 
  if 
  

  

  